{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5eb4c9c5-c93b-4c24-b22d-8dc89089646f", "symbol": "HDF", "name": "Hydrog\u00e8ne de France Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.32, "architecture_energy": 84.512, "architecture_maturity": 33.132, "architecture_confidence": 82.499, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.06, "rotation_up": 8.49, "upward_expansion": 20.1, "deceleration": 38.26, "rotation_down": 80.77, "downward_expansion": 95.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.538, 2.751, 3.136357, 3.306505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.74, "trend_reference": 3.486667, "distance_from_trend": -0.214149, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.280962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.563761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.067665, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.228169, "excess_performance": -0.28148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.214149, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084824, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.563761, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081312, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330677, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20444, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228169, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.611056, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76143, "relative_activity": 2.958049, "balance": 0.611056, "dry_up": 1.838345, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092223, "annualized_volatility": 0.420787, "from_high_reference": -0.466926, "from_low_reference": 0.256881 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.486667, "fair_value_reference": 6.280962, "structural_low": 2.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.03592, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.048143, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.632156, "worst_return": -0.297468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.118977, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.147391, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.187648, "worst_return": -0.374545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.245509, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.344042, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.232099, "worst_return": -0.477778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007342, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032836, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.200935, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", 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"direction": -97.471915, "energy": 98.311362, "activity_lines": [ 3.085333, 3.313273, 3.534643, 3.588376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.51, "volume": 32790, "typical_volume": 23429.9, "trend": 3.613333, "fair_value": 6.565513, "relative_strength": -38.542115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.55159, "energy": 98.480764, "activity_lines": [ 2.856667, 3.137364, 3.428071, 3.514376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.33, "volume": 41870, "typical_volume": 23611.6, "trend": 3.571333, "fair_value": 6.469936, "relative_strength": -42.386475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.843734, "energy": 98.08646, "activity_lines": [ 2.628667, 2.952182, 3.308452, 3.431581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.42, "volume": 38480, "typical_volume": 22912.65, "trend": 3.527333, "fair_value": 6.375192, "relative_strength": -40.274945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.655489, "energy": 92.436319, "activity_lines": [ 2.498667, 2.810182, 3.204119, 3.357301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.74, "volume": 76143, "typical_volume": 25740.95, "trend": 3.486667, "fair_value": 6.280962, "relative_strength": -33.067665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.319781, "energy": 84.512029, "activity_lines": [ 2.538, 2.751, 3.136357, 3.306505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }