{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5eb5a86e-1070-416e-8503-f10216cb3018", "symbol": "CADUA", "name": "Corpovael, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.5, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.557, "architecture_energy": 21.727, "architecture_maturity": 71.875, "architecture_confidence": 90.935, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.38, "rotation_up": 25.08, "upward_expansion": 51.46, "deceleration": 85.07, "rotation_down": 25.77, "downward_expansion": 27.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.385333, 7.421659, 7.471492, 7.2007 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.43, "trend_reference": 6.68804, "distance_from_trend": 0.110938, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.198405, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.76972, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 31.90605, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.486, "excess_performance": 0.540667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110938, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155235, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.76972, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228365, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.319061, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231471, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.486, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.699158, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5496, "relative_activity": 0.268113, "balance": 0.699158, "dry_up": 0.202707, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032443, "annualized_volatility": 0.238356, "from_high_reference": -0.058302, "from_low_reference": 1.476667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.68804, "fair_value_reference": 4.198405, "structural_low": 4.9, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.031756, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.030089, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.052632, "worst_return": -0.115741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.087097, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.067179, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.087719, "worst_return": -0.260652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055409, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001934, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.496774, "worst_return": -0.448622, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.178744, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.127829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.56229, "worst_return": -0.471178, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010274, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024561, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.193333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049528, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082126, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002732, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.071038, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035294, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026706, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067204, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.841837, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034819, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.19, "volume": 6179, "typical_volume": 70216.6, "trend": 2.933, "fair_value": 3.314679, "relative_strength": 13.455316, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.904695, "energy": 62.445111, 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"activity_lines": [ 7.469333, 7.545738, 7.410372, 6.974172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.18, "volume": 7061, "typical_volume": 24627.7, "trend": 6.445373, "fair_value": 4.113533, "relative_strength": 32.914419, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.121095, "energy": 30.941918, "activity_lines": [ 7.347333, 7.472133, 7.42189, 7.026256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.35, "volume": 3323, "typical_volume": 21520.4, "trend": 6.523707, "fair_value": 4.14238, "relative_strength": 34.875236, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.240275, "energy": 28.022448, "activity_lines": [ 7.310667, 7.43761, 7.44017, 7.084619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.5, "volume": 741, "typical_volume": 21068.85, "trend": 6.60704, "fair_value": 4.171226, "relative_strength": 34.821069, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.697893, "energy": 25.153806, "activity_lines": [ 7.357333, 7.434909, 7.463926, 7.147606 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.43, "volume": 5496, "typical_volume": 20498.8, "trend": 6.68804, "fair_value": 4.198405, "relative_strength": 31.90605, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.55698, "energy": 21.727012, "activity_lines": [ 7.385333, 7.421659, 7.471492, 7.2007 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }