{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5eb830e9-fabd-4a9e-8583-23f381e4b8c2", "symbol": "002879", "name": "Chang Lan Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.591, "architecture_energy": 22.22, "architecture_maturity": 72.796, "architecture_confidence": 80.82, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.7, "rotation_up": 40.71, "upward_expansion": 23.66, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 24.38, "downward_expansion": 59.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.499333, 15.398, 15.91038, 17.028107 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.0, "trend_reference": 18.413433, "distance_from_trend": -0.022453, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.342152, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.173238, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.951853, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.110999, "excess_performance": -0.118399, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035579, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.173238, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044108, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029519, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114554, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110999, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.706561, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 160969399, "relative_activity": 3.712028, "balance": 0.706561, "dry_up": 2.811744, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123718, "annualized_volatility": 0.68047, "from_high_reference": -0.261248, "from_low_reference": 0.483924 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.413433, "fair_value_reference": 15.342152, "structural_low": 12.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.036136, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.008718, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.225459, "worst_return": -0.127851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.161601, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.03284, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.213911, "worst_return": -0.073279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.182862, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.07379, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.240053, "worst_return": 0.02673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 13.1, "volume": 29231700, "typical_volume": 27593918.35, "trend": 18.619133, "fair_value": 15.314883, "relative_strength": -33.713666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.835429, "energy": 85.76486, "activity_lines": [ 13.572667, 14.434909, 16.394283, 17.61337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.62, "volume": 23335887, "typical_volume": 26753700.7, "trend": 18.466612, "fair_value": 15.295829, "relative_strength": -29.401383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.25105, "energy": 80.341784, "activity_lines": [ 13.18, 13.936364, 15.874019, 17.226329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.049999, "volume": 86000584, "typical_volume": 28846437.9, "trend": 18.486939, "fair_value": 15.313645, "relative_strength": 0.578937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.388839, "energy": 37.934278, "activity_lines": [ 14.719333, 14.533818, 15.919889, 17.199451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.25, "volume": 217411112, "typical_volume": 37151143.3, "trend": 18.4189, "fair_value": 15.320954, "relative_strength": -7.862715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.940157, "energy": 27.15554, "activity_lines": [ 15.42, 14.799454, 15.816764, 17.055132 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.0, "volume": 160969399, "typical_volume": 43364274.2, "trend": 18.413433, "fair_value": 15.342152, "relative_strength": -2.951853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.590825, "energy": 22.220249, "activity_lines": [ 16.499333, 15.398, 15.91038, 17.028107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }