{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ebd9b01-5684-440c-af7b-e1ecb6a5b1a1", "symbol": "NVMI", "name": "Nova Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.542, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -41.511, "architecture_energy": 56.846, "architecture_maturity": 17.4, "architecture_confidence": 74.082, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.59, "rotation_up": 16.89, "upward_expansion": 19.55, "deceleration": 43.68, "rotation_down": 72.51, "downward_expansion": 63.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 412.889333, 446.223636, 474.805381, 475.534237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 393.02, "trend_reference": 472.096833, "distance_from_trend": -0.167501, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 259.848686, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.512496, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.965294, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.145516, "excess_performance": -0.332969, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167501, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118585, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.512496, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.759911, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139653, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.413482, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145516, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.455372, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3082017, "relative_activity": 1.382715, "balance": 0.455372, "dry_up": 1.347468, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.182743, "annualized_volatility": 0.527303, "from_high_reference": -0.36197, "from_low_reference": 0.688774 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 472.096833, "fair_value_reference": 259.848686, "structural_low": 356.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021499, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.019063, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.264026, "worst_return": -0.012647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.384685, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.279963, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.580599, "worst_return": -0.001194, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.033995, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.074087, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.658405, "worst_return": -0.071631, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159415, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094221, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057793, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.184229, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157396, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 437.46, "volume": 2989007, "typical_volume": 2046114.8, "trend": 467.112167, "fair_value": 254.315865, "relative_strength": 0.630641, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.926712, "energy": 16.193819, "activity_lines": [ 470.252667, 493.311818, 498.407738, 487.666806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 437.98, "volume": 2104946, "typical_volume": 2042377.6, "trend": 470.680833, "fair_value": 256.334968, "relative_strength": 1.815344, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.322856, "energy": 25.939041, "activity_lines": [ 453.086667, 481.650545, 493.487857, 485.787312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 390.87, "volume": 3837849, "typical_volume": 2152041.8, "trend": 472.131833, "fair_value": 258.079071, "relative_strength": -9.882325, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.46073, "energy": 47.847029, "activity_lines": [ 429.372667, 462.717818, 483.954405, 480.638226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 393.02, "volume": 3082017, "typical_volume": 2228961.1, "trend": 472.096833, "fair_value": 259.848686, "relative_strength": -13.965294, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.511213, "energy": 56.846226, "activity_lines": [ 412.889333, 446.223636, 474.805381, 475.534237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }