{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ece9513-9a72-4a02-96f7-de054a66cef6", "symbol": "EDMU", "name": "iShares MSCI USA CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.389, "architecture_energy": 63.994, "architecture_maturity": 85.653, "architecture_confidence": 72.472, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.19, "rotation_up": 51.79, "upward_expansion": 82.18, "deceleration": 71.38, "rotation_down": 29.21, "downward_expansion": 11.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.800933, 11.764, 11.594157, 11.326806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.044, "trend_reference": 11.0169, "distance_from_trend": 0.093229, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.542782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.262106, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.815874, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.154525, "excess_performance": 0.089885, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093229, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038171, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.262106, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038384, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038159, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04894, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.154525, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.743164, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1619787, "relative_activity": 1.072665, "balance": 3.743164, "dry_up": 0.664155, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019212, "annualized_volatility": 0.123957, "from_high_reference": -0.002815, "from_low_reference": 0.223611 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.0169, "fair_value_reference": 9.542782, "structural_low": 9.876, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.014659, "positive_rate": 0.621622, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": 0.001603, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.067258, "worst_return": -0.114522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.022732, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.025116, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.112108, "worst_return": -0.106567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.064147, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.057562, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.180501, "worst_return": -0.094006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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7.820729, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.57656, "energy": 69.763057, "activity_lines": [ 11.764133, 11.706, 11.414743, 11.16348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.72, "volume": 999076, "typical_volume": 1625835.1, "trend": 10.937633, "fair_value": 9.485788, "relative_strength": 6.327663, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.213447, "energy": 64.068902, "activity_lines": [ 11.7552, 11.7176, 11.474519, 11.216454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.578, "volume": 766850, "typical_volume": 1535188.2, "trend": 10.9739, "fair_value": 9.51259, "relative_strength": 2.704274, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.14919, "energy": 56.406591, "activity_lines": [ 11.6992, 11.698473, 11.515038, 11.257768 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.044, "volume": 1619787, "typical_volume": 1510058.0, "trend": 11.0169, "fair_value": 9.542782, "relative_strength": 3.815874, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.389232, "energy": 63.994232, "activity_lines": [ 11.800933, 11.764, 11.594157, 11.326806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }