{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ecee933-58c4-4023-a38c-a06b7361f7cc", "symbol": "ROR", "name": "Rotork plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.61, "architecture_energy": 91.81, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.73, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.6, "rotation_up": 81.05, "upward_expansion": 95.33, "deceleration": 44.67, "rotation_down": 13.33, "downward_expansion": 26.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 474.16, 416.458182, 371.026027, 358.433704 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 487.0, "trend_reference": 349.147461, "distance_from_trend": 0.394826, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 327.945908, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.485001, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 30.143504, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.377484, "excess_performance": 0.311205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.394826, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044613, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.485001, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.526469, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.301435, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.42904, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.377484, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.887151, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42413557, "relative_activity": 2.310174, "balance": 2.887151, "dry_up": 2.938505, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052099, "annualized_volatility": 0.775654, "from_high_reference": -0.004497, "from_low_reference": 0.700419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 349.147461, "fair_value_reference": 327.945908, "structural_low": 286.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.015107, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.010541, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.072828, "worst_return": -0.155209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002982, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01332, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.050837, "worst_return": -0.194285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.068356, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.060763, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.12086, "worst_return": -0.071004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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338.337319, "fair_value": 325.578979, "relative_strength": 33.83431, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.493462, "energy": 95.773312, "activity_lines": [ 412.04, 366.898182, 341.975702, 339.652825 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 486.2, "volume": 36505678, "typical_volume": 17240620.95, "trend": 343.759051, "fair_value": 326.724008, "relative_strength": 31.031805, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.638411, "energy": 95.284508, "activity_lines": [ 449.226667, 393.207273, 356.871461, 349.192353 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 487.0, "volume": 42413557, "typical_volume": 18359466.65, "trend": 349.147461, "fair_value": 327.945908, "relative_strength": 30.143504, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.610401, "energy": 91.809746, "activity_lines": [ 474.16, 416.458182, 371.026027, 358.433704 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }