{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ed3fa31-43c2-4a32-bddd-a39c96fb32f2", "symbol": "MCOR34", "name": "Moody's Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 59.63, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.629, "architecture_energy": 43.382, "architecture_maturity": 11.916, "architecture_confidence": 55.324, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.32, "rotation_up": 56.95, "upward_expansion": 49.71, "deceleration": 37.79, "rotation_down": 19.14, "downward_expansion": 15.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.072583, 76.100432, 73.946142, 73.371546 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 75.760002, "trend_reference": 73.987854, "distance_from_trend": 0.023952, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 74.262104, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02017, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.442409, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.026789, "excess_performance": 0.083837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023952, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03988, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02017, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053575, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.202156, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026789, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.303901, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20, "relative_activity": 0.017112, "balance": 2.303901, "dry_up": 0.420945, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039678, "annualized_volatility": 0.301149, "from_high_reference": -0.16092, "from_low_reference": 0.143773 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.987854, "fair_value_reference": 74.262104, "structural_low": 66.2369, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.026967, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.036361, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.079125, "worst_return": -0.217497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021614, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.014353, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.095535, "worst_return": -0.168082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008958, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061906, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.208335, "worst_return": -0.098636, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"relative_strength": -10.823771, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.962145, "energy": 66.766982, "activity_lines": [ 77.589499, 75.875227, 73.61277, 73.28765 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.760002, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 1168.8, "trend": 73.987854, "fair_value": 74.262104, "relative_strength": -7.442409, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.629421, "energy": 43.381776, "activity_lines": [ 77.072583, 76.100432, 73.946142, 73.371546 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }