{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5edc6be3-94d3-47bf-8c28-4283bbbe31cc", "symbol": "ETHW", "name": "WisdomTree Physical Ethereum ETC", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.26, "architecture_energy": 27.387, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 61.901, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.49, "rotation_up": 35.09, "upward_expansion": 19.94, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 19.07, "downward_expansion": 53.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.0152, 14.448727, 14.872781, 15.333049 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15.304, "trend_reference": 16.305533, "distance_from_trend": -0.061423, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.561244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.321669, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.397353, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001964, "excess_performance": -0.080919, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061423, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169251, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.321669, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093681, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.373974, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074739, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001964, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.551491, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2418, "relative_activity": 0.56619, "balance": 0.551491, "dry_up": 0.846417, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063824, "annualized_volatility": 0.459039, "from_high_reference": -0.593681, "from_low_reference": 0.224516 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.305533, "fair_value_reference": 22.561244, "structural_low": 12.498, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.045436, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.032184, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.55135, "worst_return": -0.288996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.311416, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.295519, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.895116, "worst_return": -0.307848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.544907, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.487099, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.620492, "worst_return": -0.408299, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -42.942878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.35705, "energy": 51.086101, "activity_lines": [ 13.958133, 13.886909, 14.998848, 15.665972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.354, "volume": 1435, "typical_volume": 4735.5, "trend": 16.9001, "fair_value": 22.570654, "relative_strength": -38.466368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.15128, "energy": 29.104715, "activity_lines": [ 14.505733, 14.075309, 14.968771, 15.549963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.854, "volume": 9029, "typical_volume": 4766.3, "trend": 16.620067, "fair_value": 22.564705, "relative_strength": -39.511017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.628133, "energy": 28.637036, "activity_lines": [ 14.7628, 14.206655, 14.895343, 15.417957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.304, "volume": 2418, "typical_volume": 4270.65, "trend": 16.305533, "fair_value": 22.561244, "relative_strength": -37.397353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.260065, "energy": 27.387044, "activity_lines": [ 15.0152, 14.448727, 14.872781, 15.333049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }