{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ee529ae-5eca-472e-8f7d-94250439298d", "symbol": "MDIA3", "name": "M. Dias Branco S.A. Ind\u00fastria e Com\u00e9rcio de Alimentos", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.161, "architecture_energy": 69.197, "architecture_maturity": 77.268, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.0, "rotation_up": 28.82, "upward_expansion": 14.65, "deceleration": 44.98, "rotation_down": 51.74, "downward_expansion": 85.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.387125, 17.570013, 18.63117, 19.691923 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.49, "trend_reference": 21.17373, "distance_from_trend": -0.173976, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.312955, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.335308, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.721333, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.28522, "excess_performance": -0.228172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173976, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096064, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.335308, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091482, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.287213, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012541, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.28522, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.44807, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1983100, "relative_activity": 1.042626, "balance": 0.44807, "dry_up": 1.298524, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048071, "annualized_volatility": 0.279399, "from_high_reference": -0.398314, "from_low_reference": 0.031858 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.17373, "fair_value_reference": 26.312955, "structural_low": 16.950001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.036609, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.040611, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.322601, "worst_return": -0.170151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.037323, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.040226, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.32822, "worst_return": -0.249001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00512, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000677, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.278648, "worst_return": -0.327401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -65.323674, "energy": 68.997208, "activity_lines": [ 17.803061, 18.123295, 19.498051, 20.541347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.059999, "volume": 3550700, "typical_volume": 2128125.0, "trend": 21.620585, "fair_value": 26.599565, "relative_strength": -32.447263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.077057, "energy": 67.029223, "activity_lines": [ 17.581325, 17.85731, 19.167249, 20.23274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.15, "volume": 2378100, "typical_volume": 1987670.0, "trend": 21.402088, "fair_value": 26.456468, "relative_strength": -32.899853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.582497, "energy": 64.699977, "activity_lines": [ 17.406256, 17.659062, 18.871855, 19.944315 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.49, "volume": 1983100, "typical_volume": 1902025.0, "trend": 21.17373, "fair_value": 26.312955, "relative_strength": -28.721333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.161361, "energy": 69.197408, "activity_lines": [ 17.387125, 17.570013, 18.63117, 19.691923 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }