{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ee87eab-dac7-46d8-a5bd-11cdbc7848e0", "symbol": "KSM-F199", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM Icnet ETF", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.831, "architecture_energy": 63.138, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 60.68, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.73, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 44.4, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.45, 36.124, 1031.35819, 1865.835742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 38.38, "trend_reference": 2933.708, "distance_from_trend": -0.986918, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4353.751538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.991185, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.189931, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.992083, "excess_performance": -1.020984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.986918, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.377995, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.991185, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.861434, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.991899, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.570107, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.992083, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.971867, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3201, "relative_activity": 0.341958, "balance": 0.971867, "dry_up": 0.42272, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.089109, "annualized_volatility": 6.329363, "from_high_reference": -0.994115, "from_low_reference": 0.216096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2933.708, "fair_value_reference": 4353.751538, "structural_low": 31.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.003409, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003807, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.41905, "worst_return": -0.990765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.070971, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.037554, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.493712, "worst_return": -0.99108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.002863, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004291, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.574563, "worst_return": -0.993334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 4410.121987, "relative_strength": -99.30551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.632922, "energy": 67.551276, "activity_lines": [ 35.21, 224.138364, 1462.74719, 2273.55529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.83, "volume": 2142, "typical_volume": 10280.5, "trend": 3113.895333, "fair_value": 4382.306795, "relative_strength": -99.202385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.238755, "energy": 66.936654, "activity_lines": [ 36.647333, 96.706909, 1236.645143, 2064.256086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.38, "volume": 3201, "typical_volume": 9360.8, "trend": 2933.708, "fair_value": 4353.751538, "relative_strength": -99.189931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.83052, "energy": 63.137915, "activity_lines": [ 37.45, 36.124, 1031.35819, 1865.835742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }