{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5eec6279-fa9b-4e75-b30f-c9c25a14704b", "symbol": "002612", "name": "Lancy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 74.64, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.903, "architecture_energy": 19.498, "architecture_maturity": 93.837, "architecture_confidence": 59.187, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.67, "rotation_up": 42.86, "upward_expansion": 24.0, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 17.59, "downward_expansion": 58.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.745333, 12.858727, 13.195276, 13.88188 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15.54, "trend_reference": 15.007819, "distance_from_trend": 0.03546, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.735004, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012393, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.123943, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.104647, "excess_performance": -0.112047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03546, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123279, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012393, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069353, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071239, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.203759, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104647, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.437548, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84169557, "relative_activity": 2.689434, "balance": 2.437548, "dry_up": 2.166433, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082849, "annualized_volatility": 0.487826, "from_high_reference": -0.291747, "from_low_reference": 0.464656 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.007819, "fair_value_reference": 15.735004, "structural_low": 10.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.009218, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.018208, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.240772, "worst_return": -0.163774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.052649, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.011977, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.296899, "worst_return": -0.282365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.136026, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01066, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.188026, "worst_return": -0.277047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-39.007822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.775045, "energy": 82.642163, "activity_lines": [ 11.524667, 12.20326, 13.420523, 14.387229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.92, "volume": 32954774, "typical_volume": 23801946.25, "trend": 15.485362, "fair_value": 15.860287, "relative_strength": -27.466566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.688393, "energy": 65.07372, "activity_lines": [ 11.618667, 12.013655, 13.188013, 14.144457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.45, "volume": 24929696, "typical_volume": 23094656.95, "trend": 15.242388, "fair_value": 15.801574, "relative_strength": -29.876916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.426415, "energy": 63.664996, "activity_lines": [ 11.564667, 11.796261, 12.93654, 13.884111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.79, "volume": 129151976, "typical_volume": 28359621.85, "trend": 15.122194, "fair_value": 15.765461, "relative_strength": -7.465548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.111429, "energy": 27.943724, "activity_lines": [ 12.646, 12.254545, 13.026603, 13.854925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.54, "volume": 84169557, "typical_volume": 31296379.25, "trend": 15.007819, "fair_value": 15.735004, "relative_strength": -7.123943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.902702, "energy": 19.497898, "activity_lines": [ 13.745333, 12.858727, 13.195276, 13.88188 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }