{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5eec6fe0-74d9-43bc-8a7e-9849e8e508d0", "symbol": "ENER", "name": "Amundi MSCI New Energy UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.819, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.666, "architecture_energy": 23.623, "architecture_maturity": 54.043, "architecture_confidence": 91.933, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.66, "rotation_up": 17.19, "upward_expansion": 45.16, "deceleration": 84.15, "rotation_down": 46.53, "downward_expansion": 36.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.411, 43.463, 44.088547, 43.257731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 42.77, "trend_reference": 41.770333, "distance_from_trend": 0.023932, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.017018, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.424858, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.374514, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.158922, "excess_performance": -0.01197, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023932, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095011, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.424858, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105151, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013745, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208689, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.158922, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.169922, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16534, "relative_activity": 0.331168, "balance": 1.169922, "dry_up": 1.451922, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049415, "annualized_volatility": 0.229744, "from_high_reference": -0.101471, "from_low_reference": 0.53335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.770333, "fair_value_reference": 30.017018, "structural_low": 36.849998, "invalidation": "A 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"typical_volume": 47286.75, "trend": 40.934667, "fair_value": 29.824351, "relative_strength": 1.121671, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.687738, "energy": 18.970286, "activity_lines": [ 44.169001, 44.879455, 44.362238, 43.040344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.744999, "volume": 64494, "typical_volume": 46986.85, "trend": 41.246167, "fair_value": 29.883374, "relative_strength": 2.736437, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.638085, "energy": 22.53875, "activity_lines": [ 43.417667, 44.428546, 44.326571, 43.15714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.529999, "volume": 106061, "typical_volume": 50364.0, "trend": 41.494667, "fair_value": 29.942968, "relative_strength": -1.124526, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.803323, "energy": 26.435322, "activity_lines": [ 42.576, 43.793545, 44.155071, 43.175452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.77, "volume": 16534, "typical_volume": 49926.25, "trend": 41.770333, "fair_value": 30.017018, "relative_strength": -1.374514, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.666312, "energy": 23.623196, "activity_lines": [ 42.411, 43.463, 44.088547, 43.257731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }