{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5eef9d5e-ae7d-4b95-95ab-fb9167adbe3b", "symbol": "600500", "name": "Sinochem International Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.557, "architecture_energy": 31.695, "architecture_maturity": 64.464, "architecture_confidence": 49.936, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.84, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 15.92, "deceleration": 72.93, "rotation_down": 63.38, "downward_expansion": 40.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.118, 5.988182, 6.01819, 5.703677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.51, "trend_reference": 5.281333, "distance_from_trend": 0.043297, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.387115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.255951, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.595403, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.179872, "excess_performance": 0.223075, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043297, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184332, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.255951, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110994, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.155954, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070869, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.179872, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.84764, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 465041552, "relative_activity": 1.085044, "balance": 1.84764, "dry_up": 1.066676, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.227558, "annualized_volatility": 0.86399, "from_high_reference": -0.440609, "from_low_reference": 0.469333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.281333, "fair_value_reference": 4.387115, "structural_low": 4.13, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.06338, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.052763, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.098951, "worst_return": -0.129252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.077821, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.111123, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.038981, "worst_return": -0.150108, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.029348, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.06378, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.073463, "worst_return": -0.345572, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"close": 6.45, "volume": 577901545, "typical_volume": 400591046.0, "trend": 5.135667, "fair_value": 4.399691, "relative_strength": 35.08696, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.733252, "energy": 59.702274, "activity_lines": [ 7.602667, 7.213091, 6.263619, 5.75471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.16, "volume": 446335630, "typical_volume": 412212924.15, "trend": 5.179667, "fair_value": 4.398077, "relative_strength": 14.289369, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.753329, "energy": 26.038164, "activity_lines": [ 6.69, 6.924, 6.219571, 5.75628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.71, "volume": 478133459, "typical_volume": 420431729.45, "trend": 5.207333, "fair_value": 4.393141, "relative_strength": 2.71843, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.231106, "energy": 21.833046, "activity_lines": [ 5.812, 6.549455, 6.130381, 5.725978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.58, "volume": 439165996, "typical_volume": 420104085.75, "trend": 5.228333, "fair_value": 4.387051, "relative_strength": -0.779554, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.38155, "energy": 33.119608, "activity_lines": [ 5.165333, 6.168545, 6.02919, 5.685505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.51, "volume": 465041552, "typical_volume": 428592304.9, "trend": 5.281333, "fair_value": 4.387115, "relative_strength": 15.595403, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.557279, "energy": 31.695229, "activity_lines": [ 5.118, 5.988182, 6.01819, 5.703677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }