{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5efb5ac5-29ed-43bc-9d26-94f5b52854a1", "symbol": "AHK", "name": "Ark Mines Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.175, "architecture_energy": 55.319, "architecture_maturity": 84.237, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.79, "rotation_up": 24.89, "upward_expansion": 8.66, "deceleration": 60.83, "rotation_down": 58.58, "downward_expansion": 84.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.259333, 0.264636, 0.288167, 0.316118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.315, "trend_reference": 0.360833, "distance_from_trend": -0.127021, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.250673, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.256617, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.493836, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.307692, "excess_performance": -0.371398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127021, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197256, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.256617, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089405, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254938, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159533, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.307692, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.289869, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 122142, "relative_activity": 0.508972, "balance": 0.289869, "dry_up": 1.504517, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113553, "annualized_volatility": 0.761913, "from_high_reference": -0.58, "from_low_reference": 0.880597 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.360833, "fair_value_reference": 0.250673, "structural_low": 0.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.012821, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006159, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.698113, "worst_return": -0.226415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.116667, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.086238, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.142982, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.17281, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.457143, "worst_return": -0.282051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108108, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.916667, 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"direction": -78.713048, "energy": 87.272725, "activity_lines": [ 0.282667, 0.298818, 0.325762, 0.358247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.275, "volume": 155547, "typical_volume": 228608.5, "trend": 0.3975, "fair_value": 0.251122, "relative_strength": -30.781356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.149357, "energy": 86.128026, "activity_lines": [ 0.276, 0.292364, 0.318214, 0.34972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.25, "volume": 249486, "typical_volume": 237075.55, "trend": 0.3875, "fair_value": 0.250705, "relative_strength": -37.202684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.706866, "energy": 90.757522, "activity_lines": [ 0.264667, 0.282455, 0.309143, 0.340204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.24, "volume": 356663, "typical_volume": 246417.0, "trend": 0.378333, "fair_value": 0.250545, "relative_strength": -39.700969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.450363, "energy": 88.808976, "activity_lines": [ 0.254333, 0.272364, 0.3, 0.330688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.205, "volume": 715912, "typical_volume": 258151.0, "trend": 0.3675, "fair_value": 0.250224, "relative_strength": -49.68715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.666052, "energy": 92.928037, "activity_lines": [ 0.236667, 0.257545, 0.288333, 0.319505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.315, "volume": 122142, "typical_volume": 239977.85, "trend": 0.360833, "fair_value": 0.250673, "relative_strength": -25.493836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.175189, "energy": 55.319033, "activity_lines": [ 0.259333, 0.264636, 0.288167, 0.316118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }