{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5efbefb5-577e-41b6-8b59-c02e22624bf2", "symbol": "ES", "name": "Eversource Energy", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.506, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.514, "architecture_energy": 39.622, "architecture_maturity": 36.342, "architecture_confidence": 53.528, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.72, "rotation_up": 50.38, "upward_expansion": 73.84, "deceleration": 67.03, "rotation_down": 23.0, "downward_expansion": 5.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.133333, 64.1, 62.343826, 61.55627 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 63.0, "trend_reference": 60.594572, "distance_from_trend": 0.039697, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.48983, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.177794, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.830921, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.134282, "excess_performance": -0.039965, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039697, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037416, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.177794, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106206, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128309, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024676, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134282, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 15.461538, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50, "relative_activity": 0.593472, "balance": 15.461538, "dry_up": 1.652819, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044526, "annualized_volatility": 0.277055, "from_high_reference": -0.073529, "from_low_reference": 0.241515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.594572, "fair_value_reference": 53.48983, "structural_low": 55.252542, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.004065, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.01533, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.040439, "worst_return": -0.087302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02997, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.073287, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.140751, "worst_return": -0.083345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.045675, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.154438, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.136854, "worst_return": -0.134147, 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61.533333, 60.439486, 59.855575, 59.559803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 66.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 93.85, "trend": 59.222823, "fair_value": 53.185936, "relative_strength": -8.947771, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.693401, "energy": 76.286248, "activity_lines": [ 63.233333, 61.596516, 60.425401, 60.020047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 65.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 66.8, "trend": 59.530059, "fair_value": 53.244877, "relative_strength": -8.9174, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.289779, "energy": 78.270866, "activity_lines": [ 64.133333, 62.430137, 60.875708, 60.392768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 66.0, "volume": 201, "typical_volume": 76.85, "trend": 59.829947, "fair_value": 53.29922, "relative_strength": -5.529716, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.368057, "energy": 82.182125, "activity_lines": [ 65.166667, 63.331136, 61.404055, 60.810184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.0, "volume": 293, "typical_volume": 91.5, "trend": 60.194796, "fair_value": 53.359067, "relative_strength": -6.600242, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.381922, "energy": 81.452658, "activity_lines": [ 65.7, 64.063636, 61.917401, 61.208252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.0, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 81.75, "trend": 60.410924, "fair_value": 53.421697, "relative_strength": -10.483678, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.183405, "energy": 48.536539, "activity_lines": [ 64.866667, 64.109091, 62.129092, 61.389233 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.0, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 84.25, "trend": 60.594572, "fair_value": 53.48983, "relative_strength": -12.830921, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.514363, "energy": 39.621874, "activity_lines": [ 64.133333, 64.1, 62.343826, 61.55627 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }