{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5efc2fec-7855-4dd0-9da9-ebb731e9a702", "symbol": "XE01", "name": "Xtrackers Eurozone Government B", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.027, "architecture_energy": 71.219, "architecture_maturity": 8.454, "architecture_confidence": 74.637, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.58, "rotation_up": 69.62, "upward_expansion": 91.19, "deceleration": 48.77, "rotation_down": 22.17, "downward_expansion": 13.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.487667, 35.468091, 35.421858, 35.377592 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 35.514999, "trend_reference": 35.318667, "distance_from_trend": 0.005559, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.014136, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.014305, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.654223, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008805, "excess_performance": -0.162086, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005559, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003485, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.014305, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002998, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136542, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021012, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008805, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 16.549738, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 559, "relative_activity": 0.312134, "balance": 16.549738, "dry_up": 0.796108, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00144, "annualized_volatility": 0.002845, "from_high_reference": -0.001125, "from_low_reference": 0.018643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.318667, "fair_value_reference": 35.014136, "structural_low": 35.145, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000704, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 34.389999, "volume": 1395, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 34.48, "volume": 107, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", 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null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 35.34, "volume": 1156, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 35.360001, "volume": 2117, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 35.384998, "volume": 3197, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 35.375, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 35.400002, "volume": 4001, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 35.415001, "volume": 1645, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 35.439999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 35.459999, "volume": 2292, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.459999, "volume": 2473, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.455002, "volume": 1145, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.470001, "volume": 3681, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.490002, "volume": 318, "typical_volume": 1778.65, "trend": 35.306, "fair_value": 35.007875, "relative_strength": -11.553489, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.086938, "energy": 73.746734, "activity_lines": [ 35.471668, 35.453546, 35.407096, 35.364108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.514999, "volume": 559, "typical_volume": 1790.9, "trend": 35.318667, "fair_value": 35.014136, "relative_strength": -13.654223, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.027083, "energy": 71.21905, "activity_lines": [ 35.487667, 35.468091, 35.421858, 35.377592 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }