{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5eff9845-d5a7-4dcd-bcf7-f5d2c2c28e78", "symbol": "CMTV", "name": "Community Bancorp. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.931, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.995, "architecture_energy": 29.103, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.036, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.65, "rotation_up": 45.24, "upward_expansion": 73.59, "deceleration": 61.3, "rotation_down": 20.63, "downward_expansion": 2.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.983294, 39.741885, 39.296301, 38.306384 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.85, "trend_reference": 36.360318, "distance_from_trend": 0.095975, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.699213, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.925194, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.067439, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.254925, "excess_performance": 0.067471, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095975, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16946, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.925194, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192029, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.150674, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149402, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.254925, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.414176, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 243086, "relative_activity": 1.444171, "balance": 0.414176, "dry_up": 1.000229, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088575, "annualized_volatility": 0.569992, "from_high_reference": -0.07142, "from_low_reference": 0.873413 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.360318, "fair_value_reference": 20.699213, "structural_low": 29.134969, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.011429, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.009467, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.320972, "worst_return": -0.131274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.034016, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.038955, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.37986, "worst_return": -0.125123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028638, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.071671, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.695134, "worst_return": -0.111154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 182716.1, "trend": 34.846236, "fair_value": 20.227492, "relative_strength": 21.339554, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.52051, "energy": 21.171142, "activity_lines": [ 39.063176, 39.148776, 38.742539, 37.357781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.56, "volume": 169727, "typical_volume": 189057.85, "trend": 35.386775, "fair_value": 20.384707, "relative_strength": 25.60671, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.122304, "energy": 28.021053, "activity_lines": [ 39.467991, 39.419812, 38.989524, 37.726411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.45, "volume": 168610, "typical_volume": 188121.7, "trend": 35.923647, "fair_value": 20.54655, "relative_strength": 23.596963, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.299805, "energy": 28.484246, "activity_lines": [ 39.864901, 39.638485, 39.17621, 38.05307 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.85, "volume": 243086, "typical_volume": 168322.15, "trend": 36.360318, "fair_value": 20.699213, "relative_strength": 15.067439, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.995168, "energy": 29.103371, "activity_lines": [ 39.983294, 39.741885, 39.296301, 38.306384 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }