{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f036e9f-47e5-4718-864d-c26ee37e15b7", "symbol": "IGI", "name": "Western Asset Investment Grade Defined Opportunity Trust Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.876, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.652, "architecture_energy": 44.264, "architecture_maturity": 2.88, "architecture_confidence": 93.358, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.66, "rotation_up": 14.46, "upward_expansion": 11.42, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 53.19, "downward_expansion": 77.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.825969, 15.898155, 15.937495, 15.958046 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.83, "trend_reference": 16.006135, "distance_from_trend": -0.011004, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.51601, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.020237, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.110743, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.024182, "excess_performance": -0.149807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011004, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00195, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.020237, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021056, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011036, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024182, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.792916, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47324, "relative_activity": 0.645374, "balance": 0.792916, "dry_up": 0.727951, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017777, "annualized_volatility": 0.069985, "from_high_reference": -0.042508, "from_low_reference": 0.034275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.006135, "fair_value_reference": 15.51601, "structural_low": 15.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.006107, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.008444, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.080794, "worst_return": -0.042155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.023865, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.02679, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.110739, "worst_return": -0.116355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022951, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018648, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.108524, "worst_return": -0.099995, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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15.48448, "relative_strength": -8.463378, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.496431, "energy": 8.272938, "activity_lines": [ 16.021421, 16.005954, 15.988803, 16.006535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.835, "volume": 66918, "typical_volume": 79995.65, "trend": 16.030041, "fair_value": 15.494466, "relative_strength": -8.71233, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.876073, "energy": 16.793837, "activity_lines": [ 15.959117, 15.978404, 15.976508, 15.993206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.67, "volume": 69699, "typical_volume": 74394.45, "trend": 16.014932, "fair_value": 15.504891, "relative_strength": -10.293973, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.723766, "energy": 45.053995, "activity_lines": [ 15.855263, 15.921285, 15.949076, 15.969978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.83, "volume": 47324, "typical_volume": 73328.05, "trend": 16.006135, "fair_value": 15.51601, "relative_strength": -12.110743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.651841, "energy": 44.263698, "activity_lines": [ 15.825969, 15.898155, 15.937495, 15.958046 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }