{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f04d508-9f1d-41f1-b1bc-62ee88675739", "symbol": "BMO", "name": "Bank of Montreal", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.644, "architecture_energy": 68.857, "architecture_maturity": 89.353, "architecture_confidence": 94.349, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.24, "rotation_up": 60.78, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.33, "rotation_down": 28.73, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 251.838441, 249.326948, 237.775626, 226.766738 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 253.240005, "trend_reference": 213.378045, "distance_from_trend": 0.186814, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 144.955995, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.747013, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.827181, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.319504, "excess_performance": 0.199083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.186814, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12471, "read": "Rising" 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178.846817, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.021368, "positive_rate": 0.621622, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": 0.010796, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.131632, "worst_return": -0.119559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.029593, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.009381, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.331226, "worst_return": -0.125204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.097875, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.07371, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.377566, "worst_return": -0.111858, "sufficient": 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77.967634, "energy": 91.961918, "activity_lines": [ 242.773962, 234.599019, 220.712663, 212.023654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 251.634415, "volume": 10454500, "typical_volume": 9537395.0, "trend": 203.521873, "fair_value": 141.230353, "relative_strength": 21.052502, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.6094, "energy": 94.209262, "activity_lines": [ 246.704412, 239.037543, 224.658472, 215.285471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 253.382217, "volume": 9512600, "typical_volume": 9263525.0, "trend": 206.101802, "fair_value": 142.163035, "relative_strength": 21.382361, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.856238, "energy": 93.081816, "activity_lines": [ 249.723835, 242.989769, 228.51605, 218.502268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 249.032578, "volume": 8275900, "typical_volume": 9267125.0, "trend": 208.555753, "fair_value": 143.0688, "relative_strength": 18.351189, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.328338, "energy": 73.439317, "activity_lines": [ 250.084564, 245.349111, 231.68007, 221.271995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 251.470001, "volume": 16835600, "typical_volume": 9671180.0, "trend": 210.985742, "fair_value": 144.003293, "relative_strength": 19.367438, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.283476, "energy": 68.567627, "activity_lines": [ 250.817595, 247.440847, 234.802658, 224.040656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 253.240005, "volume": 13673000, "typical_volume": 9799500.0, "trend": 213.378045, "fair_value": 144.955995, "relative_strength": 15.827181, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.644088, "energy": 68.857455, "activity_lines": [ 251.838441, 249.326948, 237.775626, 226.766738 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }