{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f092a03-20bb-4ed8-9008-abd6da545203", "symbol": "SPGM", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR PORTFOLIO MSCI GLOBAL STOCK MARKET ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.054, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.263, "architecture_energy": 49.341, "architecture_maturity": 54.493, "architecture_confidence": 74.98, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.53, "rotation_up": 52.05, "upward_expansion": 79.85, "deceleration": 63.0, "rotation_down": 26.31, "downward_expansion": 6.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.9009, 85.5034, 84.716205, 83.181647 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 88.0377, "trend_reference": 81.431795, "distance_from_trend": 0.081122, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.941216, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.355652, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.371656, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111487, "excess_performance": -0.014138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081122, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04072, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.355652, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003717, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003717, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012666, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111487, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.349434, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 504636, "relative_activity": 0.506883, "balance": 1.349434, "dry_up": 0.530654, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025853, "annualized_volatility": 0.150111, "from_high_reference": -0.002066, "from_low_reference": 0.267665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.431795, "fair_value_reference": 64.941216, "structural_low": 72.558576, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.011595, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003736, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.065072, "worst_return": -0.060512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.02676, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.010607, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.081313, "worst_return": -0.082586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.079363, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.020572, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.14379, "worst_return": -0.175366, "sufficient": true }, { 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85.345333, 85.079937, 83.333536, 81.943947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 84.54, "volume": 389792, "typical_volume": 1190753.35, "trend": 80.573618, "fair_value": 64.255656, "relative_strength": 0.447057, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.164703, "energy": 42.164352, "activity_lines": [ 85.096, 85.028583, 83.634233, 82.218311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 84.305, "volume": 492139, "typical_volume": 1142671.1, "trend": 80.819294, "fair_value": 64.468537, "relative_strength": 0.697868, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.189756, "energy": 35.56155, "activity_lines": [ 84.805, 84.928293, 83.891218, 82.459046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 85.08, "volume": 726641, "typical_volume": 1002179.3, "trend": 81.09808, "fair_value": 64.69452, "relative_strength": 0.46055, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.30773, "energy": 33.754172, "activity_lines": [ 84.890667, 84.953084, 84.185877, 82.73393 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.0377, "volume": 504636, "typical_volume": 995566.85, "trend": 81.431795, "fair_value": 64.941216, "relative_strength": 0.371656, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.263237, "energy": 49.341477, "activity_lines": [ 85.9009, 85.5034, 84.716205, 83.181647 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }