{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f0c8db0-3161-439a-9335-9c5fac03514d", "symbol": "F1IS34", "name": "Fiserv, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.736, "architecture_energy": 32.638, "architecture_maturity": 24.931, "architecture_confidence": 58.662, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.44, "rotation_up": 25.6, "upward_expansion": 15.63, "deceleration": 65.21, "rotation_down": 37.25, "downward_expansion": 63.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 132.826667, 132.349637, 135.785097, 139.832022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 133.0, "trend_reference": 146.741001, "distance_from_trend": -0.093641, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 365.220641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.635837, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.533107, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.1482, "excess_performance": -0.091152, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093641, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089794, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.635837, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002411, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.375331, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.223463, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1482, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.598022, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1259, "relative_activity": 2.754923, "balance": 1.598022, "dry_up": 2.774617, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059803, "annualized_volatility": 0.366262, "from_high_reference": -0.652778, "from_low_reference": 0.072581 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 146.741001, "fair_value_reference": 365.220641, "structural_low": 124.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002466, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00537, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.083789, "worst_return": -0.198154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.005393, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.067909, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.037599, "worst_return": -0.183325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.095149, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.164048, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121293, "worst_return": -0.381571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -6.9e-05, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041921, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.99227, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057228, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039826, "active": false }, { 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53.593698, "activity_lines": [ 131.195999, 133.008546, 138.033287, 143.076667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 129.990005, "volume": 1716, "typical_volume": 332.9, "trend": 149.757667, "fair_value": 367.231538, "relative_strength": -43.080268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.241453, "energy": 47.291093, "activity_lines": [ 131.113334, 132.044547, 136.843954, 141.679248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 136.5, "volume": 1848, "typical_volume": 406.65, "trend": 148.374334, "fair_value": 366.237308, "relative_strength": -39.631506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.195326, "energy": 35.317758, "activity_lines": [ 132.893334, 132.461819, 136.451811, 140.823915 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 133.0, "volume": 1259, "typical_volume": 457.0, "trend": 146.741001, "fair_value": 365.220641, "relative_strength": -37.533107, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.735721, "energy": 32.637785, "activity_lines": [ 132.826667, 132.349637, 135.785097, 139.832022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }