{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f14ad4f-5436-4476-ae99-3278d2f2941d", "symbol": "ENMT4", "name": "Energisa Mato Grosso - Distribuidora de Energia S/A", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.09, "architecture_energy": 58.945, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.471, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.92, "rotation_up": 28.53, "upward_expansion": 10.51, "deceleration": 60.91, "rotation_down": 49.8, "downward_expansion": 81.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.897333, 37.079636, 39.922, 42.623348 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 35.849998, "trend_reference": 45.761431, "distance_from_trend": -0.216589, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 61.231777, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.41452, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.732319, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.300187, "excess_performance": -0.243139, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.216589, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102533, "read": "Falling" 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35.490002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.008348, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.023386, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.351455, "worst_return": -0.362561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.040583, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.146438, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.098581, "worst_return": -0.236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.090782, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.228641, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.040657, "worst_return": -0.27247, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 37.700001, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 1050.0, "trend": 47.930952, "fair_value": 61.493461, "relative_strength": -31.986163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.095377, "energy": 75.443935, "activity_lines": [ 37.120667, 38.996001, 42.9667, 45.244075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.060001, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 1065.0, "trend": 47.346686, "fair_value": 61.341169, "relative_strength": -30.680401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.048826, "energy": 65.773901, "activity_lines": [ 37.033334, 38.323637, 42.118636, 44.542724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.529999, "volume": 3400, "typical_volume": 1235.0, "trend": 46.75822, "fair_value": 61.249776, "relative_strength": -30.948029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.947878, "energy": 64.349368, "activity_lines": [ 36.896, 37.717273, 41.287609, 43.844873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.200001, "volume": 2700, "typical_volume": 1370.0, "trend": 46.22542, "fair_value": 61.250479, "relative_strength": -28.346815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.628034, "energy": 56.468431, "activity_lines": [ 37.346667, 37.568546, 40.685667, 43.29273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.849998, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 1470.0, "trend": 45.761431, "fair_value": 61.231777, "relative_strength": -29.732319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.090226, "energy": 58.944677, "activity_lines": [ 36.897333, 37.079636, 39.922, 42.623348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }