{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f1ed5ce-53e3-44d4-9801-079aa6604437", "symbol": "IMS", "name": "Immsi S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 57.037, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.377, "architecture_energy": 27.587, "architecture_maturity": 16.095, "architecture_confidence": 42.483, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.58, "rotation_up": 51.41, "upward_expansion": 51.28, "deceleration": 30.11, "rotation_down": 24.14, "downward_expansion": 14.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.524267, 0.516382, 0.51444, 0.511291 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.527, "trend_reference": 0.51355, "distance_from_trend": 0.02619, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.50519, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043172, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.31821, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.011257, "excess_performance": -0.182149, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02619, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023793, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043172, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059024, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153182, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029542, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011257, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.955805, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 528865, "relative_activity": 0.343781, "balance": 1.955805, "dry_up": 0.66954, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060064, "annualized_volatility": 0.275773, "from_high_reference": -0.25879, "from_low_reference": 0.171111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.51355, "fair_value_reference": 0.50519, "structural_low": 0.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.003021, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.003142, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.287149, "worst_return": -0.065543, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019484, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075294, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.274354, "worst_return": -0.130294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.015587, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.036467, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.13253, "worst_return": -0.044436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-13.504341, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.27935, "energy": 9.118413, "activity_lines": [ 0.512667, 0.513373, 0.508776, 0.510133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.508, "volume": 684140, "typical_volume": 1703270.3, "trend": 0.516483, "fair_value": 0.503696, "relative_strength": -15.996449, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.423414, "energy": 11.552213, "activity_lines": [ 0.5133, 0.511382, 0.509336, 0.509481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.533, "volume": 2142225, "typical_volume": 1710291.95, "trend": 0.51545, "fair_value": 0.504447, "relative_strength": -12.161524, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.745106, "energy": 21.016738, "activity_lines": [ 0.521533, 0.514191, 0.512276, 0.510546 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.527, "volume": 528865, "typical_volume": 1538377.6, "trend": 0.51355, "fair_value": 0.50519, "relative_strength": -15.31821, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.377384, "energy": 27.587063, "activity_lines": [ 0.524267, 0.516382, 0.51444, 0.511291 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }