{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f21f0d0-e4c9-40a5-b350-c47210c463fa", "symbol": "ISSC", "name": "Innovative Solutions and Support", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.945, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.461, "architecture_energy": 11.558, "architecture_maturity": 44.841, "architecture_confidence": 72.865, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.3, "rotation_up": 29.02, "upward_expansion": 25.82, "deceleration": 48.29, "rotation_down": 21.67, "downward_expansion": 47.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.146667, 18.748182, 18.714524, 19.741613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 20.17, "trend_reference": 20.746167, "distance_from_trend": -0.027772, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.152949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.80849, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.789953, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.029607, "excess_performance": -0.157847, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027772, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094207, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.80849, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273153, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.0279, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085923, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029607, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.931762, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1257626, "relative_activity": 0.551993, "balance": 1.931762, "dry_up": 0.630865, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111783, "annualized_volatility": 0.751778, "from_high_reference": -0.348093, "from_low_reference": 1.480935 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.746167, "fair_value_reference": 11.152949, "structural_low": 15.07, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.056952, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.070164, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.991786, "worst_return": -0.107612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.161044, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.206565, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.663244, "worst_return": -0.081365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.186277, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.239235, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.770021, "worst_return": 0.024934, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049433, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.19105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011891, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145791, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.33534, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": 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"energy": 27.803602, "activity_lines": [ 17.96, 17.826273, 19.489214, 20.272914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.85, "volume": 1276119, "typical_volume": 2682374.25, "trend": 20.649833, "fair_value": 10.869487, "relative_strength": -4.685004, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.07358, "energy": 27.481242, "activity_lines": [ 18.292, 17.946909, 19.257095, 20.173333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.46, "volume": 1282350, "typical_volume": 2658953.8, "trend": 20.7115, "fair_value": 10.937628, "relative_strength": -2.447559, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.608047, "energy": 27.337954, "activity_lines": [ 18.390667, 18.041364, 19.013881, 20.032054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.14, "volume": 1526257, "typical_volume": 2544529.5, "trend": 20.702833, "fair_value": 11.008782, "relative_strength": 2.746254, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.136755, "energy": 19.790415, "activity_lines": [ 18.717333, 18.312182, 18.871048, 19.930667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.29, "volume": 1683065, "typical_volume": 2379648.2, "trend": 20.6875, "fair_value": 11.075641, "relative_strength": -2.248239, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.49996, "energy": 18.766081, "activity_lines": [ 18.632, 18.376364, 18.680833, 19.775 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.17, "volume": 1257626, "typical_volume": 2278338.8, "trend": 20.746167, "fair_value": 11.152949, "relative_strength": 2.789953, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.461308, "energy": 11.557668, "activity_lines": [ 19.146667, 18.748182, 18.714524, 19.741613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }