{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f279c08-cbf1-4578-ae75-3d8d62c69878", "symbol": "ELME", "name": "Elme Communities", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.078, "architecture_energy": 63.368, "architecture_maturity": 92.449, "architecture_confidence": 95.955, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 23.9, "upward_expansion": 11.78, "deceleration": 60.34, "rotation_down": 59.16, "downward_expansion": 85.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.571333, 1.606545, 1.769238, 1.866688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.62, "trend_reference": 2.03, "distance_from_trend": -0.20197, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.327208, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.303887, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.139068, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.27027, "excess_performance": -0.395895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20197, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148805, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.303887, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.381391, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125899, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.27027, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.527507, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2586502, "relative_activity": 0.385899, "balance": 0.527507, "dry_up": 0.923839, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084454, "annualized_volatility": 0.469967, "from_high_reference": -0.490566, "from_low_reference": 0.285714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.03, "fair_value_reference": 2.327208, "structural_low": 1.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.018017, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.02301, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.162618, "worst_return": -0.243781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.046512, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.052048, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.061711, "worst_return": -0.160415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.11598, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.128344, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.118475, "worst_return": -0.153251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -41.687584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.534612, "energy": 90.167513, "activity_lines": [ 1.516667, 1.657091, 1.826714, 1.928479 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.61, "volume": 6585290, "typical_volume": 7005918.15, "trend": 2.074333, "fair_value": 2.331283, "relative_strength": -37.077464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.653939, "energy": 72.762124, "activity_lines": [ 1.546667, 1.627091, 1.796429, 1.896 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.62, "volume": 2586502, "typical_volume": 6702532.25, "trend": 2.03, "fair_value": 2.327208, "relative_strength": -38.139068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.078076, "energy": 63.368379, "activity_lines": [ 1.571333, 1.606545, 1.769238, 1.866688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }