{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f2a886f-7272-44bd-a118-b5c326feade3", "symbol": "BXN", "name": "Bioxyne Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.039, "architecture_energy": 20.252, "architecture_maturity": 63.08, "architecture_confidence": 95.706, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.07, "rotation_up": 25.75, "upward_expansion": 55.09, "deceleration": 90.44, "rotation_down": 26.55, "downward_expansion": 18.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.862667, 0.887182, 0.845929, 0.782247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.91, "trend_reference": 0.685833, "distance_from_trend": 0.326853, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.308974, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.945228, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 51.264441, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.275, "excess_performance": 1.211294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.326853, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.325709, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.945228, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192171, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.512644, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0584, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.275, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.74919, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 660164, "relative_activity": 0.396248, "balance": 1.74919, "dry_up": 0.33538, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167371, "annualized_volatility": 0.865234, "from_high_reference": -0.172727, "from_low_reference": 1.757576 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.685833, "fair_value_reference": 0.308974, "structural_low": 0.41, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.014749, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.769231, "worst_return": -0.264706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.238095, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.224811, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.307692, "worst_return": -0.117647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.571429, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.597207, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.846154, "worst_return": -0.217391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.130435, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.229426, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.230769, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.8, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.411765, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073171, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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0.9, "volume": 2089884, "typical_volume": 2037620.7, "trend": 0.626, "fair_value": 0.291699, "relative_strength": 65.300458, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.673925, "energy": 51.002694, "activity_lines": [ 0.938, 0.899455, 0.805857, 0.728366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.865, "volume": 101879, "typical_volume": 1805661.85, "trend": 0.640833, "fair_value": 0.296026, "relative_strength": 56.751218, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.059709, "energy": 39.977522, "activity_lines": [ 0.913, 0.900909, 0.818571, 0.743785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.84, "volume": 481750, "typical_volume": 1738134.2, "trend": 0.654833, "fair_value": 0.300256, "relative_strength": 50.883559, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.60041, "energy": 27.976339, "activity_lines": [ 0.879333, 0.894818, 0.827643, 0.756634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.81, "volume": 991232, "typical_volume": 1725346.9, "trend": 0.668167, "fair_value": 0.304295, "relative_strength": 40.622898, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.514522, "energy": 19.184799, "activity_lines": [ 0.849667, 0.883091, 0.832667, 0.766645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.91, "volume": 660164, "typical_volume": 1666037.15, "trend": 0.685833, "fair_value": 0.308974, "relative_strength": 51.264441, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.038511, "energy": 20.252338, "activity_lines": [ 0.862667, 0.887182, 0.845929, 0.782247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }