{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f2b8f48-1c69-4546-be73-193f00180efe", "symbol": "N32", "name": "Nippecraft Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.046, "architecture_energy": 32.546, "architecture_maturity": 62.979, "architecture_confidence": 64.709, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.55, "rotation_up": 22.86, "upward_expansion": 15.09, "deceleration": 63.24, "rotation_down": 43.26, "downward_expansion": 65.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0348, 0.034673, 0.036624, 0.038234 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.036, "trend_reference": 0.040367, "distance_from_trend": -0.108175, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.045199, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.203517, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.069697, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.234043, "excess_performance": -0.388878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108175, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079087, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.203517, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102713, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.290697, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18652, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234043, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.381308, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10700, "relative_activity": 0.058748, "balance": 0.381308, "dry_up": 0.644165, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117521, "annualized_volatility": 0.563285, "from_high_reference": -0.294118, "from_low_reference": 0.241379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.040367, "fair_value_reference": 0.045199, "structural_low": 0.029, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.021277, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.017935, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.194444, "worst_return": -0.139535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.068182, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.089944, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.255814, "worst_return": -0.223881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.054348, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.116912, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.097561, "worst_return": -0.341772, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 0.034533, 0.0364, 0.038538, 0.040041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.03, "volume": 205300, "typical_volume": 195115.0, "trend": 0.041367, "fair_value": 0.045731, "relative_strength": -40.566209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.748736, "energy": 79.399562, "activity_lines": [ 0.032667, 0.034927, 0.037567, 0.039277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.035, "volume": 219700, "typical_volume": 181980.0, "trend": 0.041033, "fair_value": 0.045538, "relative_strength": -31.01739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.859464, "energy": 67.028274, "activity_lines": [ 0.033, 0.0346, 0.037143, 0.038867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.036, "volume": 33600, "typical_volume": 181610.0, "trend": 0.040767, "fair_value": 0.045359, "relative_strength": -28.884315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.223435, "energy": 47.370696, "activity_lines": [ 0.034, 0.0346, 0.036867, 0.038542 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.036, "volume": 10700, "typical_volume": 182135.0, "trend": 0.040367, "fair_value": 0.045199, "relative_strength": -29.069697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.045624, "energy": 32.545696, "activity_lines": [ 0.0348, 0.034673, 0.036624, 0.038234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }