{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f303a45-5e1e-40b5-9dde-4fe64a3f1d09", "symbol": "NES", "name": "Nelson Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.466, "architecture_energy": 17.71, "architecture_maturity": 47.195, "architecture_confidence": 89.079, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.7, "rotation_up": 26.56, "upward_expansion": 16.64, "deceleration": 38.04, "rotation_down": 37.27, "downward_expansion": 61.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0034, 0.003391, 0.003533, 0.003641 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.003, "trend_reference": 0.0039, "distance_from_trend": -0.230769, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.003756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.201365, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.837212, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.4, "excess_performance": -0.463706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.230769, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155235, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.201365, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030162, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.358372, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059256, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.7196, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15988241, "relative_activity": 0.765192, "balance": 2.7196, "dry_up": 0.46416, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.307692, "annualized_volatility": 1.279616, "from_high_reference": -0.75, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0039, "fair_value_reference": 0.003756, "structural_low": 0.003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.204545, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.029064, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.142861, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.153811, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.442393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.334145, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.361931, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.609693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.6, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.3125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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0.004033, "fair_value": 0.003795, "relative_strength": -10.035967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.993717, "energy": 27.569732, "activity_lines": [ 0.003433, 0.003527, 0.003624, 0.003768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.003, "volume": 21167511, "typical_volume": 22747918.95, "trend": 0.003967, "fair_value": 0.003776, "relative_strength": -32.030156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.108834, "energy": 28.170945, "activity_lines": [ 0.003333, 0.003409, 0.003557, 0.003701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.004, "volume": 485022, "typical_volume": 20676890.25, "trend": 0.003967, "fair_value": 0.003769, "relative_strength": -11.772794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.221234, "energy": 10.94881, "activity_lines": [ 0.003567, 0.003491, 0.003593, 0.003703 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.003, "volume": 15988241, "typical_volume": 20894411.4, "trend": 0.0039, "fair_value": 0.003756, "relative_strength": -35.837212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.465932, "energy": 17.709628, "activity_lines": [ 0.0034, 0.003391, 0.003533, 0.003641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }