{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f312fdf-292d-4a41-9e0e-eed856b0d343", "symbol": "TITAGARH", "name": "Titagarh Rail Systems Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 52.437, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.713, "architecture_energy": 19.932, "architecture_maturity": 51.841, "architecture_confidence": 91.935, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.63, "rotation_up": 21.23, "upward_expansion": 53.66, "deceleration": 92.99, "rotation_down": 27.11, "downward_expansion": 19.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 836.793339, 850.059095, 832.642863, 802.01108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 847.450012, "trend_reference": 776.541671, "distance_from_trend": 0.091313, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 962.318531, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119366, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.412097, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.084389, "excess_performance": 0.128098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091313, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010488, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119366, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018721, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.054121, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001042, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084389, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.898425, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2122506, "relative_activity": 0.396022, "balance": 1.898425, "dry_up": 0.344517, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066308, "annualized_volatility": 0.387037, "from_high_reference": -0.121813, "from_low_reference": 0.490153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 776.541671, "fair_value_reference": 962.318531, "structural_low": 568.700012, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.064729, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.047517, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.188563, "worst_return": -0.199979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.222543, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.218674, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.53248, "worst_return": -0.146419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.15018, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.144194, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.961816, "worst_return": -0.344903, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.766416, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.752774, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.462686, "worst_return": -0.210196, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178862, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.223792, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169009, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051881, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.189616, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055294, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036602, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00518, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101488, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.030806, "active": false }, 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[ 870.460002, 856.408189, 808.195245, 786.374736 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 859.849976, "volume": 2288571, "typical_volume": 5616135.55, "trend": 779.868335, "fair_value": 959.001607, "relative_strength": 8.038863, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.597319, "energy": 42.913601, "activity_lines": [ 864.903325, 859.886365, 817.50929, 791.69581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 819.450012, "volume": 1793747, "typical_volume": 5504308.3, "trend": 777.258335, "fair_value": 960.015841, "relative_strength": 5.461594, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.33807, "energy": 26.729117, "activity_lines": [ 845.799996, 855.657275, 822.219052, 794.249466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 825.200012, "volume": 1181004, "typical_volume": 5425530.6, "trend": 775.08667, "fair_value": 961.138879, "relative_strength": 3.527547, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.891136, "energy": 22.175577, "activity_lines": [ 835.480001, 851.452731, 826.813815, 797.342478 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 847.450012, "volume": 2122506, "typical_volume": 5359559.75, "trend": 776.541671, "fair_value": 962.318531, "relative_strength": 5.412097, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.713362, "energy": 19.932469, "activity_lines": [ 836.793339, 850.059095, 832.642863, 802.01108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }