{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f34f78f-8ce1-4754-b4fe-1373a3f60a9d", "symbol": "HMN", "name": "Horace Mann Educators Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.333, "architecture_energy": 50.799, "architecture_maturity": 65.127, "architecture_confidence": 67.808, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.77, "rotation_up": 49.76, "upward_expansion": 79.45, "deceleration": 71.14, "rotation_down": 25.19, "downward_expansion": 8.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.239333, 51.940901, 49.730367, 48.014567 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 52.22, "trend_reference": 45.982002, "distance_from_trend": 0.135662, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.028664, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.373175, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.823289, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.228774, "excess_performance": 0.103149, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.135662, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0484, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.373175, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150099, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028233, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118464, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.228774, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.446062, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1259383, "relative_activity": 1.074381, "balance": 3.446062, "dry_up": 1.071601, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052219, "annualized_volatility": 0.163042, "from_high_reference": -0.060115, "from_low_reference": 0.276364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.982002, "fair_value_reference": 38.028664, "structural_low": 40.913101, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.017614, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.026682, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.155022, "worst_return": -0.089286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.018841, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.009625, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.110323, "worst_return": -0.089011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.026749, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.114456, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.121876, "worst_return": -0.167704, "sufficient": true }, { 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2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.925702, "energy": 89.342803, "activity_lines": [ 51.913901, 49.857377, 47.540978, 46.230614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.61, "volume": 1441110, "typical_volume": 1225436.45, "trend": 45.234614, "fair_value": 37.533997, "relative_strength": 8.15999, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.564559, "energy": 87.343928, "activity_lines": [ 52.44, 50.650031, 48.191306, 46.721081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.1, "volume": 1294988, "typical_volume": 1226398.95, "trend": 45.445774, "fair_value": 37.69517, "relative_strength": 7.491103, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.933038, "energy": 77.816955, "activity_lines": [ 52.522, 51.196698, 48.746457, 47.164009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.11, "volume": 1029014, "typical_volume": 1205535.25, "trend": 45.700572, "fair_value": 37.863207, "relative_strength": 6.199679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.811632, "energy": 58.287441, "activity_lines": [ 52.379333, 51.609859, 49.257912, 47.593959 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.22, "volume": 1259383, "typical_volume": 1172193.65, "trend": 45.982002, "fair_value": 38.028664, "relative_strength": 2.823289, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.332878, "energy": 50.799451, "activity_lines": [ 52.239333, 51.940901, 49.730367, 48.014567 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }