{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f356e3c-df9e-4803-a989-ded233bb5b8a", "symbol": "000617", "name": "CNPC Capital Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.969, "architecture_energy": 52.953, "architecture_maturity": 90.358, "architecture_confidence": 69.495, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.11, "rotation_up": 27.72, "upward_expansion": 22.09, "deceleration": 66.96, "rotation_down": 45.11, "downward_expansion": 72.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.986, 6.932961, 7.456367, 7.961891 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.09, "trend_reference": 8.511107, "distance_from_trend": -0.166971, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.239153, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.020604, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.578458, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.211346, "excess_performance": -0.218746, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166971, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086232, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.020604, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.304864, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.255785, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075724, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.211346, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.357589, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 408368571, "relative_activity": 0.588074, "balance": 0.357589, "dry_up": 0.687473, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068282, "annualized_volatility": 0.32746, "from_high_reference": -0.479157, "from_low_reference": 0.090769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.511107, "fair_value_reference": 7.239153, "structural_low": 6.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.010101, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.013151, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.474, "worst_return": -0.143239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.001835, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.013667, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.632353, "worst_return": -0.176737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000784, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007383, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.706098, "worst_return": -0.211346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 7.233031, "relative_strength": -29.177133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.564976, "energy": 90.435913, "activity_lines": [ 6.748943, 6.994102, 7.842699, 8.277046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.83, "volume": 689466303, "typical_volume": 796994938.85, "trend": 8.669164, "fair_value": 7.233448, "relative_strength": -26.70223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.459892, "energy": 82.852545, "activity_lines": [ 6.757333, 6.906781, 7.684017, 8.153641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.2, "volume": 424652923, "typical_volume": 795162830.95, "trend": 8.592963, "fair_value": 7.235826, "relative_strength": -21.029041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.48596, "energy": 62.02318, "activity_lines": [ 6.908667, 6.921889, 7.57143, 8.058856 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.09, "volume": 408368571, "typical_volume": 694417043.6, "trend": 8.511107, "fair_value": 7.239153, "relative_strength": -25.578458, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.968663, "energy": 52.952526, "activity_lines": [ 6.986, 6.932961, 7.456367, 7.961891 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }