{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f3f10ff-4ebe-453a-b409-86cf0da63594", "symbol": "ORCL34", "name": "Oracle Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.739, "architecture_energy": 71.99, "architecture_maturity": 16.307, "architecture_confidence": 83.065, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.31, "rotation_up": 9.08, "upward_expansion": 15.81, "deceleration": 37.93, "rotation_down": 73.28, "downward_expansion": 89.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 112.728666, 119.86359, 134.460037, 136.01133 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 124.0, "trend_reference": 138.366849, "distance_from_trend": -0.103832, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 144.521621, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.141997, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.056004, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.012291, "excess_performance": 0.069339, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103832, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114137, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.141997, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276875, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.32056, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033899, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012291, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.715564, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 655728, "relative_activity": 1.734299, "balance": 0.715564, "dry_up": 1.827595, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139501, "annualized_volatility": 0.7682, "from_high_reference": -0.598363, "from_low_reference": 0.273755 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 138.366849, "fair_value_reference": 144.521621, "structural_low": 97.349998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.049873, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.053219, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.219402, "worst_return": -0.178831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045815, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.080875, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.778204, "worst_return": -0.283804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.281932, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.307456, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.065959, "worst_return": -0.295282, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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144.17002, "relative_strength": -48.805901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.027267, "energy": 85.802899, "activity_lines": [ 110.451103, 128.01069, 138.654325, 139.098571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 110.5, "volume": 601776, "typical_volume": 351568.2, "trend": 140.099947, "fair_value": 144.30224, "relative_strength": -42.298149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.080971, "energy": 78.913502, "activity_lines": [ 108.726346, 122.257868, 135.848345, 137.050037 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 124.0, "volume": 655728, "typical_volume": 378093.95, "trend": 138.366849, "fair_value": 144.521621, "relative_strength": -32.056004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.73949, "energy": 71.990309, "activity_lines": [ 112.728666, 119.86359, 134.460037, 136.01133 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }