{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f3facfb-4603-4a22-901a-8cf99fd184b0", "symbol": "S66", "name": "Star Combo Pharma Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.19, "architecture_energy": 52.518, "architecture_maturity": 86.861, "architecture_confidence": 64.877, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.5, "rotation_up": 27.38, "upward_expansion": 21.46, "deceleration": 66.24, "rotation_down": 45.94, "downward_expansion": 71.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.126667, 0.124727, 0.145524, 0.161817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.13, "trend_reference": 0.183, "distance_from_trend": -0.289617, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.15352, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.153203, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.338726, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.422222, "excess_performance": -0.485928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.289617, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157652, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.153203, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.448199, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.373387, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.34401, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.422222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.183633, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8198, "relative_activity": 0.11591, "balance": 1.183633, "dry_up": 1.262141, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142012, "annualized_volatility": 0.860078, "from_high_reference": -0.527273, "from_low_reference": 0.181818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.183, "fair_value_reference": 0.15352, "structural_low": 0.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.008145, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.548387, "worst_return": -0.282051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.101723, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.048413, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.593403, "worst_return": -0.243902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.007786, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.611111, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.064418, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074758, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.419355, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100005, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.259265, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.154119, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.417114, "energy": 83.364252, "activity_lines": [ 0.122333, 0.136727, 0.164905, 0.179511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.12, "volume": 174643, "typical_volume": 71826.8, "trend": 0.196, "fair_value": 0.153209, "relative_strength": -39.91291, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.500216, "energy": 65.904632, "activity_lines": [ 0.122333, 0.130727, 0.159048, 0.174398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.12, "volume": 16150, "typical_volume": 69583.9, "trend": 0.191667, "fair_value": 0.153254, "relative_strength": -39.457933, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.966229, "energy": 64.197871, "activity_lines": [ 0.121667, 0.126091, 0.153476, 0.169495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.13, "volume": 158081, "typical_volume": 76834.6, "trend": 0.187333, "fair_value": 0.153364, "relative_strength": -35.548995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.654501, "energy": 56.529785, "activity_lines": [ 0.124, 0.124818, 0.149286, 0.165516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.13, "volume": 8198, "typical_volume": 70727.45, "trend": 0.183, "fair_value": 0.15352, "relative_strength": -37.338726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.19016, "energy": 52.518187, "activity_lines": [ 0.126667, 0.124727, 0.145524, 0.161817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }