{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f43cc87-31c0-48df-a90f-b4c9fca89cd3", "symbol": "SHLE", "name": "Source Energy Services Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.677, "architecture_energy": 82.365, "architecture_maturity": 30.266, "architecture_confidence": 82.657, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 10.13, "upward_expansion": 19.81, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 74.62, "downward_expansion": 93.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.214, 12.826727, 13.625857, 14.237936 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.0, "trend_reference": 15.062667, "distance_from_trend": -0.203328, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.058846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.00488, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.679194, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.259716, "excess_performance": -0.380137, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.203328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009426, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.00488, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325387, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.256792, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201783, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.259716, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.55452, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19400, "relative_activity": 0.199291, "balance": 1.55452, "dry_up": 0.563203, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091795, "annualized_volatility": 0.436931, "from_high_reference": -0.359658, "from_low_reference": 0.160542 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.062667, "fair_value_reference": 12.058846, "structural_low": 11.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.064134, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.057589, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.046154, "worst_return": -0.180488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.24036, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.189665, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.876471, "worst_return": -0.154229, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.587065, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.535188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.917808, "worst_return": 0.38002, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.469148, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.201744, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.4, "worst_return": 0.164384, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09487, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218822, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114594, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.152439, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039688, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026944, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002114, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.251015, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055034, "active": false 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11.879231, "relative_strength": -13.19394, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.567884, "energy": 37.222744, "activity_lines": [ 13.908, 14.021818, 14.593762, 15.053355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.66, "volume": 46000, "typical_volume": 107845.0, "trend": 15.418, "fair_value": 11.925641, "relative_strength": -20.628502, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.874258, "energy": 44.742923, "activity_lines": [ 13.518, 13.738727, 14.366238, 14.870602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.58, "volume": 60100, "typical_volume": 106535.0, "trend": 15.328667, "fair_value": 11.973782, "relative_strength": -20.925569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.961806, "energy": 47.227189, "activity_lines": [ 13.175333, 13.484182, 14.150095, 14.687505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.55, "volume": 93800, "typical_volume": 101950.0, "trend": 15.189667, "fair_value": 12.011795, "relative_strength": -26.560098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.557498, "energy": 74.687181, "activity_lines": [ 12.550667, 13.082545, 13.856524, 14.44372 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.0, "volume": 19400, "typical_volume": 97345.0, "trend": 15.062667, "fair_value": 12.058846, "relative_strength": -25.679194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.676623, "energy": 82.364904, "activity_lines": [ 12.214, 12.826727, 13.625857, 14.237936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }