{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f489d9c-d71f-48c6-bc0a-7e43118d10a4", "symbol": "603316", "name": "ChengBang Syncore Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.555, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.172, "architecture_energy": 51.552, "architecture_maturity": 13.629, "architecture_confidence": 79.546, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.38, "rotation_up": 16.76, "upward_expansion": 26.53, "deceleration": 49.34, "rotation_down": 66.3, "downward_expansion": 49.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.791333, 16.080182, 17.604143, 17.284344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.25, "trend_reference": 16.673667, "distance_from_trend": -0.145359, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.774808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.623967, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.323768, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037812, "excess_performance": 0.005392, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145359, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057236, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.623967, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.853599, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.482658, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037812, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.734777, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75399639, "relative_activity": 0.879238, "balance": 0.734777, "dry_up": 0.826714, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.244858, "annualized_volatility": 0.923518, "from_high_reference": -0.490708, "from_low_reference": 0.725182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.673667, "fair_value_reference": 8.774808, "structural_low": 11.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.067018, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.04532, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.40393, "worst_return": -0.069193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.132752, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.1462, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.301954, "worst_return": -0.048387, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.151382, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.194703, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.842795, "worst_return": -0.308869, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.192748, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163833, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.230483, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.266968, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022508, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.511579, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.286962, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.321333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 7.33, "volume": 53601605, "typical_volume": 25025795.6, "trend": 6.163, "fair_value": 5.925407, "relative_strength": 18.861308, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.955736, "energy": 11.652719, "activity_lines": [ 18.318667, 19.505818, 18.919238, 17.978151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.62, "volume": 82827780, "typical_volume": 91039144.7, "trend": 16.757, "fair_value": 8.694872, "relative_strength": -11.506293, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.979485, "energy": 30.821263, "activity_lines": [ 16.047333, 18.105455, 18.410048, 17.707505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.63, "volume": 60898760, "typical_volume": 87524749.0, "trend": 16.682, "fair_value": 8.729744, "relative_strength": -12.259704, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.36722, "energy": 40.493374, "activity_lines": [ 14.348667, 16.815818, 17.922381, 17.441247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.25, "volume": 75399639, "typical_volume": 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