{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f497657-b68a-4aed-aeb4-c4cc8d707a21", "symbol": "603086", "name": "Shandong Cynda Chemical Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.904, "architecture_energy": 61.329, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.871, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.9, "rotation_up": 28.85, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.97, "rotation_down": 49.69, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.363333, 5.406182, 5.842774, 6.333296 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.52, "trend_reference": 7.015066, "distance_from_trend": -0.213122, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.336936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.128917, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.671037, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.370582, "excess_performance": -0.327378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213122, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124656, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.128917, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.240141, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.29671, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031755, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.370582, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.349201, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35785284, "relative_activity": 1.180771, "balance": 0.349201, "dry_up": 1.220171, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078589, "annualized_volatility": 0.346329, "from_high_reference": -0.500452, "from_low_reference": 0.104 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.015066, "fair_value_reference": 6.336936, "structural_low": 5.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.028437, "positive_rate": 0.322581, "directional_follow_through": 0.677419, "median_excess_return": -0.023837, "regime_survival": 0.903226, "best_return": 0.19774, "worst_return": -0.391753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.055164, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.049034, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.103194, "worst_return": -0.292014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.203599, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.129681, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.541555, "worst_return": -0.312466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-24", "close": 5.04, "volume": 41627867, "typical_volume": 37174880.95, "trend": 7.1994, "fair_value": 6.355397, "relative_strength": -35.269974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.806364, "energy": 71.347985, "activity_lines": [ 5.269333, 5.453384, 6.033698, 6.549713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.43, "volume": 38584284, "typical_volume": 32745036.1, "trend": 7.105066, "fair_value": 6.34559, "relative_strength": -29.716871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.66909, "energy": 64.860096, "activity_lines": [ 5.306667, 5.410706, 5.926355, 6.435558 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.52, "volume": 35785284, "typical_volume": 30306715.35, "trend": 7.015066, "fair_value": 6.336936, "relative_strength": -29.671037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.903564, "energy": 61.328645, "activity_lines": [ 5.363333, 5.406182, 5.842774, 6.333296 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }