{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f4b8065-dec3-4852-af4b-6e2dddfe9abe", "symbol": "ACLS", "name": "Axcelis Technologies Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.467, "architecture_energy": 17.41, "architecture_maturity": 62.568, "architecture_confidence": 71.943, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.57, "rotation_up": 16.55, "upward_expansion": 41.14, "deceleration": 86.95, "rotation_down": 38.86, "downward_expansion": 32.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 136.090667, 144.534, 147.944429, 138.08157 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 140.27, "trend_reference": 123.761667, "distance_from_trend": 0.133388, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 103.609167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.353838, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.573837, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.629531, "excess_performance": 0.442077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.133388, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.219848, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.353838, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196365, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.165738, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.42388, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.629531, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.516643, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2803540, "relative_activity": 0.908509, "balance": 0.516643, "dry_up": 0.727273, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.174887, "annualized_volatility": 0.679146, "from_high_reference": -0.276138, "from_low_reference": 0.905842 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 123.761667, "fair_value_reference": 103.609167, "structural_low": 75.31, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.016047, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013547, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.350749, "worst_return": -0.137726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.016194, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.088847, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.462063, "worst_return": -0.243532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.116884, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.086055, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.759553, "worst_return": -0.432115, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028953, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.443171, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039521, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053236, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.211782, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170437, "active": false }, { 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132.266839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 143.35, "volume": 2856273, "typical_volume": 3389017.65, "trend": 117.207667, "fair_value": 104.699551, "relative_strength": 22.336807, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.271099, "energy": 33.757777, "activity_lines": [ 157.974667, 159.907636, 148.150429, 134.077613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 136.42, "volume": 2281800, "typical_volume": 3295769.3, "trend": 118.997667, "fair_value": 104.44891, "relative_strength": 20.481706, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.637792, "energy": 22.65436, "activity_lines": [ 148.199333, 155.594, 148.578143, 135.317118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 134.1, "volume": 1664163, "typical_volume": 3166648.2, "trend": 120.714, "fair_value": 104.071987, "relative_strength": 19.424466, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.123359, "energy": 24.324044, "activity_lines": [ 140.564, 151.342364, 148.528667, 136.291462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 130.38, "volume": 2227578, "typical_volume": 3121387.5, "trend": 122.189333, "fair_value": 103.781218, "relative_strength": 14.605051, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.093358, "energy": 17.42563, "activity_lines": [ 135.250667, 146.797636, 147.877952, 136.915075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 140.27, "volume": 2803540, "typical_volume": 3085869.4, "trend": 123.761667, "fair_value": 103.609167, "relative_strength": 16.573837, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.466906, "energy": 17.410473, "activity_lines": [ 136.090667, 144.534, 147.944429, 138.08157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }