{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f5114dd-96e1-4739-929c-64c08ddcb71f", "symbol": "ZZZD", "name": "BMO Tactical Dividend ETF Fund ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.596, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.29, "architecture_energy": 52.919, "architecture_maturity": 83.655, "architecture_confidence": 66.151, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.26, "rotation_up": 52.9, "upward_expansion": 84.55, "deceleration": 65.8, "rotation_down": 28.39, "downward_expansion": 8.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.215334, 32.175668, 31.989653, 31.692239 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.220001, "trend_reference": 31.2372, "distance_from_trend": 0.031463, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.748028, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161164, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.287505, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.064114, "excess_performance": -0.056308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031463, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032592, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161164, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004027, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052875, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003065, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064114, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.37027, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6900, "relative_activity": 2.04142, "balance": 0.37027, "dry_up": 3.39497, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009965, "annualized_volatility": 0.070698, "from_high_reference": -0.015281, "from_low_reference": 0.151132 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.2372, "fair_value_reference": 27.748028, "structural_low": 30.110394, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.003165, "positive_rate": 0.641026, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": -0.015496, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.047764, "worst_return": -0.049751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.016586, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.02718, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.063361, "worst_return": -0.018385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.050282, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.041909, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.084784, "worst_return": -0.116758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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32.011236, 31.835764, 31.472986, 31.091594 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 31.93, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1040.0, "trend": 30.631181, "fair_value": 27.43776, "relative_strength": -3.846614, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.753371, "energy": 76.533095, "activity_lines": [ 32.004632, 31.875157, 31.547786, 31.181094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 32.279999, "volume": 4100, "typical_volume": 1100.0, "trend": 30.731275, "fair_value": 27.491579, "relative_strength": -3.285634, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.369726, "energy": 87.104322, "activity_lines": [ 32.105447, 31.973822, 31.648055, 31.287469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.18, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": 1250.0, "trend": 30.837511, "fair_value": 27.543328, "relative_strength": -3.481711, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.200601, "energy": 81.259984, "activity_lines": [ 32.147615, 32.038851, 31.729602, 31.380935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.98, "volume": 14500, "typical_volume": 1945.0, "trend": 30.933813, "fair_value": 27.594594, "relative_strength": -3.722552, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.560582, "energy": 62.564034, "activity_lines": [ 32.095882, 32.050182, 31.784886, 31.454644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.369999, "volume": 7100, "typical_volume": 2245.0, "trend": 31.045402, "fair_value": 27.64539, "relative_strength": -2.61213, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.807828, "energy": 69.027241, "activity_lines": [ 32.186666, 32.121246, 31.872464, 31.547301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.220001, "volume": 17400, "typical_volume": 3100.0, "trend": 31.148067, "fair_value": 27.697509, "relative_strength": -2.433619, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.194511, "energy": 58.702035, "activity_lines": [ 32.210667, 32.152354, 31.93561, 31.623082 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.220001, "volume": 6900, "typical_volume": 3380.0, "trend": 31.2372, "fair_value": 27.748028, "relative_strength": -5.287505, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.2895, "energy": 52.918827, "activity_lines": [ 32.215334, 32.175668, 31.989653, 31.692239 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }