{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f53694c-5172-4432-a7da-0ad4b3889f73", "symbol": "COPX", "name": "GLOBAL X FDS GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF (POST REV SPL", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.239, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.802, "architecture_energy": 6.68, "architecture_maturity": 16.624, "architecture_confidence": 56.639, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.24, "rotation_up": 24.06, "upward_expansion": 13.76, "deceleration": 39.36, "rotation_down": 30.25, "downward_expansion": 61.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.799333, 79.613045, 80.756504, 80.960792 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 88.03, "trend_reference": 81.747042, "distance_from_trend": 0.076859, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.264485, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.751336, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.779416, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039561, "excess_performance": -0.086064, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076859, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057213, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.751336, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090411, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.087794, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137276, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039561, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.881253, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17254216, "relative_activity": 0.985172, "balance": 0.881253, "dry_up": 0.800186, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090199, "annualized_volatility": 0.501405, "from_high_reference": -0.119612, "from_low_reference": 0.98328 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.747042, "fair_value_reference": 50.264485, "structural_low": 68.49, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.000411, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000569, "regime_survival": 0.45, "best_return": 0.133095, "worst_return": -0.140368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.035753, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.020327, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.302275, "worst_return": -0.172922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.009435, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.037867, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.555526, "worst_return": -0.306452, 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"relative_strength": 1.995593, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.609649, "energy": 51.476346, "activity_lines": [ 76.056092, 78.368314, 80.07942, 80.684109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 78.86, "volume": 12267313, "typical_volume": 17944793.0, "trend": 81.397375, "fair_value": 49.933254, "relative_strength": 1.656492, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.326926, "energy": 38.39313, "activity_lines": [ 76.997333, 78.118797, 79.987176, 80.532881 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.03, "volume": 17254216, "typical_volume": 17513911.75, "trend": 81.747042, "fair_value": 50.264485, "relative_strength": 8.779416, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.80249, "energy": 6.679784, "activity_lines": [ 80.799333, 79.613045, 80.756504, 80.960792 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }