{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5f55f7b0-4a2c-46dc-b26a-d07f9d82c5b7",
    "symbol": "RNRG",
    "name": "GLOBAL X RENEWABLE ENERGY PRODUCERS ETF",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 50.881,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -66.533,
    "architecture_energy": 57.633,
    "architecture_maturity": 14.233,
    "architecture_confidence": 85.235,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.38,
        "rotation_up": 12.87,
        "upward_expansion": 10.37,
        "deceleration": 43.73,
        "rotation_down": 71.82,
        "downward_expansion": 88.37
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        34.715227,
        35.085607,
        36.130773,
        36.388526
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 34.575,
    "trend_reference": 36.506542,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.052909,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 30.645262,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.128233,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -12.794011,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.048223,
    "excess_performance": -0.235677,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.052909,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.021965,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.128233,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.13471,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.12794,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.106165,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.048223,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.348064,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 20555,
      "relative_activity": 0.554578,
      "balance": 0.348064,
      "dry_up": 1.107287,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.038483,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.146119,
      "from_high_reference": -0.12424,
      "from_low_reference": 0.225467
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 36.506542,
      "fair_value_reference": 30.645262,
      "structural_low": 33.17,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.02043,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.037444,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": -0.00988,
        "worst_return": -0.029663,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.024749,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.059394,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.059326,
        "worst_return": -0.108824,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.010861,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.018379,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.053664,
        "worst_return": -0.031942,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.134622,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.391886,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.134622,
        "worst_return": -0.134622,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-03-01",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.077198,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-06-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.043395,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-07-05",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.020884,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.035531,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.030303,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.002151,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.030298,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.044218,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.025164,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.251547,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.074909,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-06-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.006673,
        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-06-12",
        "end": "2026-07-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.059325,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-10",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.00988,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "fair_value": 30.436443,
        "relative_strength": 5.635494,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 57.891049,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "relative_strength": -4.272159,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 22075,
        "typical_volume": 28271.35,
        "trend": 35.866098,
        "fair_value": 30.592589,
        "relative_strength": -3.54957,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 43.574001,
        "energy": 29.599397,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 11335,
        "typical_volume": 27909.65,
        "trend": 36.016224,
        "fair_value": 30.605584,
        "relative_strength": -6.087225,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 39.903681,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 32261.9,
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        "fair_value": 30.616812,
        "relative_strength": -12.287898,
        "stage": 3,
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        "energy": 9.54159,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 7546,
        "typical_volume": 32289.25,
        "trend": 36.21084,
        "fair_value": 30.62241,
        "relative_strength": -8.932243,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -8.093768,
        "energy": 20.458161,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.552618,
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          37.312159,
          36.965828
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 35.265,
        "volume": 36519,
        "typical_volume": 32939.25,
        "trend": 36.286007,
        "fair_value": 30.629821,
        "relative_strength": -10.310318,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -30.248818,
        "energy": 36.225188,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.925465,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 34.92,
        "volume": 11503,
        "typical_volume": 33017.65,
        "trend": 36.344773,
        "fair_value": 30.627789,
        "relative_strength": -12.609077,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -34.865871,
        "energy": 56.588566,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.440923,
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          36.816677
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 35.07,
        "volume": 8564,
        "typical_volume": 32279.25,
        "trend": 36.416605,
        "fair_value": 30.625791,
        "relative_strength": -8.344785,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -30.245948,
        "energy": 60.554318,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.189182,
          35.993091,
          36.74386,
          36.734433
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 35.025,
        "volume": 126770,
        "typical_volume": 37541.2,
        "trend": 36.478169,
        "fair_value": 30.62712,
        "relative_strength": -6.895542,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -39.308003,
        "energy": 62.520256,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.083712,
          35.705226,
          36.567663,
          36.644652
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 34.4296,
        "volume": 8274,
        "typical_volume": 37397.55,
        "trend": 36.496395,
        "fair_value": 30.633998,
        "relative_strength": -8.866819,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -45.516759,
        "energy": 60.281328,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.837533,
          35.352732,
          36.34015,
          36.512487
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 34.575,
        "volume": 20555,
        "typical_volume": 37064.25,
        "trend": 36.506542,
        "fair_value": 30.645262,
        "relative_strength": -12.794011,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.533366,
        "energy": 57.632653,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.715227,
          35.085607,
          36.130773,
          36.388526
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}