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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.375, "architecture_energy": 16.375, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.987, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.72, "rotation_up": 15.24, "upward_expansion": 49.4, "deceleration": 90.68, "rotation_down": 42.43, "downward_expansion": 26.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.829846, 73.318355, 73.264961, 72.719081 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 69.37, "trend_reference": 71.574933, "distance_from_trend": -0.030806, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.016011, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.195704, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.770391, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.047765, "excess_performance": -0.139689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030806, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04076, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.195704, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088382, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117704, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02687, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047765, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.881576, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13381814, "relative_activity": 1.175657, "balance": 0.881576, "dry_up": 1.130329, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04561, "annualized_volatility": 0.207734, "from_high_reference": -0.113129, "from_low_reference": 0.121644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.574933, "fair_value_reference": 58.016011, 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.953782, "energy": 36.985063, "activity_lines": [ 75.197609, 74.80139, 73.808462, 72.876343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.78, "volume": 14063239, "typical_volume": 11278077.85, "trend": 71.396931, "fair_value": 57.874316, "relative_strength": -5.661142, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.183215, "energy": 11.244121, "activity_lines": [ 73.552378, 74.159236, 73.600322, 72.84985 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.37, "volume": 13381814, "typical_volume": 11382414.65, "trend": 71.574933, "fair_value": 58.016011, "relative_strength": -11.770391, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.374822, "energy": 16.37487, "activity_lines": [ 71.829846, 73.318355, 73.264961, 72.719081 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }