{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f5a4675-cb37-410c-929c-cf01b0b54791", "symbol": "688003", "name": "Suzhou TZTEK Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.584, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.116, "architecture_energy": 34.398, "architecture_maturity": 54.976, "architecture_confidence": 50.114, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.55, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 16.68, "deceleration": 72.28, "rotation_down": 64.43, "downward_expansion": 41.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.896001, 88.362909, 91.638758, 87.038044 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 78.900002, "trend_reference": 81.673604, "distance_from_trend": -0.03396, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.62134, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.590042, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.026002, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.067596, "excess_performance": -0.024392, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03396, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.208548, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.590042, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141784, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.13026, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105051, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067596, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.120734, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30781019, "relative_activity": 1.245017, "balance": 1.120734, "dry_up": 1.287902, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.232712, "annualized_volatility": 0.775305, "from_high_reference": -0.407747, "from_low_reference": 0.673738 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.673604, "fair_value_reference": 49.62134, "structural_low": 53.470001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.030275, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.044067, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.342077, "worst_return": -0.130755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.099525, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.090283, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.800478, "worst_return": -0.110292, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.177771, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.130925, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.352757, "worst_return": -0.235602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087866, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114754, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028477, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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87.299999, 98.128213, 93.991549, 87.937433 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.800003, "volume": 32024599, "typical_volume": 23796906.05, "trend": 81.006937, "fair_value": 49.365526, "relative_strength": 2.060508, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.829488, "energy": 36.892364, "activity_lines": [ 77.944001, 92.009046, 92.358511, 87.173975 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.900002, "volume": 30781019, "typical_volume": 24723364.15, "trend": 81.673604, "fair_value": 49.62134, "relative_strength": 13.026002, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.11587, "energy": 34.39834, "activity_lines": [ 75.896001, 88.362909, 91.638758, 87.038044 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }