{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f6086f4-e906-421f-91a3-349ff42aeabb", "symbol": "SCHZ", "name": "SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR US AGGREGATE BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.066, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.423, "architecture_energy": 49.743, "architecture_maturity": 2.627, "architecture_confidence": 90.303, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.09, "rotation_up": 12.7, "upward_expansion": 10.38, "deceleration": 39.04, "rotation_down": 62.47, "downward_expansion": 86.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.765313, 22.844386, 22.902301, 22.94448 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.82, "trend_reference": 23.000367, "distance_from_trend": -0.007842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.825419, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.04557, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.448549, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011902, "excess_performance": -0.137527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000862, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.04557, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019974, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114485, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014045, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011902, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.175284, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9287025, "relative_activity": 0.914324, "balance": 1.175284, "dry_up": 0.85478, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013794, "annualized_volatility": 0.044646, "from_high_reference": -0.025227, "from_low_reference": 0.021601 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.000367, "fair_value_reference": 21.825419, "structural_low": 22.611952, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.000957, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.01313, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.034341, "worst_return": -0.04127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003588, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.013714, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.064248, "worst_return": -0.069056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.011736, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035835, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.035583, "worst_return": -0.079997, 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3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.912211, "energy": 44.817031, "activity_lines": [ 22.839525, 22.908417, 22.941386, 22.978879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.672224, "volume": 9066978, "typical_volume": 10265696.0, "trend": 23.007714, "fair_value": 21.808715, "relative_strength": -9.247972, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.606506, "energy": 54.351959, "activity_lines": [ 22.761877, 22.861439, 22.914091, 22.956591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.82, "volume": 9287025, "typical_volume": 10157261.8, "trend": 23.000367, "fair_value": 21.825419, "relative_strength": -11.448549, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.422956, "energy": 49.74263, "activity_lines": [ 22.765313, 22.844386, 22.902301, 22.94448 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }