{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f60995d-02e0-4894-ae87-5ac6e2af450b", "symbol": "600250", "name": "Nanjing Business & Tourism Corp.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.387, "architecture_energy": 56.27, "architecture_maturity": 88.874, "architecture_confidence": 73.842, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.6, "rotation_up": 27.54, "upward_expansion": 22.29, "deceleration": 66.71, "rotation_down": 50.24, "downward_expansion": 74.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.104667, 8.090182, 8.766095, 9.457441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.35, "trend_reference": 10.265333, "distance_from_trend": -0.186583, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.534936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.124273, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.128038, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.269466, "excess_performance": -0.226262, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.186583, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094182, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.124273, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257269, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.22128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067768, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.269466, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.159138, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32258800, "relative_activity": 0.469257, "balance": 0.159138, "dry_up": 0.533069, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075725, "annualized_volatility": 0.318152, "from_high_reference": -0.480721, "from_low_reference": 0.117805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.265333, "fair_value_reference": 9.534936, "structural_low": 7.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.025263, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.018938, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.194366, "worst_return": -0.16254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.111546, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.062187, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.439773, "worst_return": -0.104294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.19246, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.19543, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.460227, "worst_return": -0.136986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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8.491273, 9.532714, 10.122817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.83, "volume": 34832000, "typical_volume": 70000633.95, "trend": 10.720333, "fair_value": 9.50359, "relative_strength": -25.623429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.027899, "energy": 89.163136, "activity_lines": [ 7.924667, 8.289273, 9.296476, 9.926301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.58, "volume": 32899400, "typical_volume": 69437179.05, "trend": 10.486333, "fair_value": 9.511474, "relative_strength": -28.094302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.633739, "energy": 89.343401, "activity_lines": [ 7.793333, 8.091818, 9.053619, 9.723699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.38, "volume": 46592100, "typical_volume": 70030254.05, "trend": 10.370667, "fair_value": 9.524231, "relative_strength": -20.260629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.578305, "energy": 64.310201, "activity_lines": [ 7.974, 8.082727, 8.90419, 9.587806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.35, "volume": 32258800, "typical_volume": 68744483.5, "trend": 10.265333, "fair_value": 9.534936, "relative_strength": -22.128038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.386975, "energy": 56.269579, "activity_lines": [ 8.104667, 8.090182, 8.766095, 9.457441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }