{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f65fabd-1055-48bc-9624-a593d9538a2e", "symbol": "OKEA", "name": "OKEA ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.697, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.999, "architecture_energy": 12.492, "architecture_maturity": 51.826, "architecture_confidence": 50.673, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.47, "rotation_up": 40.57, "upward_expansion": 26.41, "deceleration": 49.87, "rotation_down": 23.08, "downward_expansion": 28.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.036666, 33.291818, 34.853809, 34.901183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 34.599998, "trend_reference": 33.535, "distance_from_trend": 0.031758, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.217283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372075, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.994319, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.310606, "excess_performance": 0.185612, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031758, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13871, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.372075, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146167, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.139943, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.302513, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.310606, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.500808, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1451247, "relative_activity": 0.76033, "balance": 2.500808, "dry_up": 0.868826, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08237, "annualized_volatility": 0.438875, "from_high_reference": -0.210046, "from_low_reference": 1.047337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.535, "fair_value_reference": 25.217283, "structural_low": 25.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.096509, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.098306, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.096509, "worst_return": -0.096509, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.175907, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.173338, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.175907, "worst_return": -0.175907, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.201232, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.274619, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.201232, "worst_return": -0.201232, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"red", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026515, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082362, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.028192, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.120248, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023711, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022175, "active": false }, { 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"stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.107832, "energy": 59.062515, "activity_lines": [ 31.236666, 33.742727, 35.663571, 34.493011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.150002, "volume": 1809043, "typical_volume": 2619706.0, "trend": 32.251667, "fair_value": 25.25469, "relative_strength": 12.367528, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.774749, "energy": 60.076731, "activity_lines": [ 31.153334, 33.149091, 35.303333, 34.510753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.5, "volume": 1946508, "typical_volume": 2424587.45, "trend": 32.733333, "fair_value": 25.258366, "relative_strength": 19.877213, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.293334, "energy": 37.275986, "activity_lines": [ 32.543334, 33.269091, 35.246667, 34.720323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.049999, "volume": 1426540, "typical_volume": 2255278.1, "trend": 33.113333, "fair_value": 25.243039, "relative_strength": 13.466854, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.680183, "energy": 14.309605, "activity_lines": [ 33.303333, 33.183636, 35.028095, 34.805269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.599998, "volume": 1451247, "typical_volume": 1908707.7, "trend": 33.535, "fair_value": 25.217283, "relative_strength": 13.994319, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.999452, "energy": 12.492197, "activity_lines": [ 34.036666, 33.291818, 34.853809, 34.901183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }