{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f661ee0-558d-4f18-866e-1529f7555419", "symbol": "INDOWIND", "name": "Indowind Energy Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.597, "architecture_energy": 34.671, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.47, "rotation_up": 21.93, "upward_expansion": 3.13, "deceleration": 51.46, "rotation_down": 49.92, "downward_expansion": 76.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.130667, 9.178, 9.400429, 9.468796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.98, "trend_reference": 9.955667, "distance_from_trend": -0.098001, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.407789, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.512163, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.569299, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.171587, "excess_performance": -0.127878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098001, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17548, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.512163, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081531, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000795, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171587, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.236089, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 454880, "relative_activity": 0.320698, "balance": 0.236089, "dry_up": 0.267882, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065702, "annualized_volatility": 0.538427, "from_high_reference": -0.525871, "from_low_reference": 0.282857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.955667, "fair_value_reference": 18.407789, "structural_low": 7.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.006567, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.028785, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.237805, "worst_return": -0.266952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.03632, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.093935, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.291615, "worst_return": -0.513191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.128358, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.168367, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.128514, "worst_return": -0.400777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.346309, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103334, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080788, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017241, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 9.35, "volume": 326664, "typical_volume": 1733363.85, "trend": 10.536667, "fair_value": 18.489199, "relative_strength": -26.76212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.691005, "energy": 32.874739, "activity_lines": [ 9.286667, 9.308909, 9.480857, 9.71086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.14, "volume": 434555, "typical_volume": 1638966.4, "trend": 10.37, "fair_value": 18.46734, "relative_strength": -25.738514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.538678, "energy": 31.210322, "activity_lines": [ 9.248, 9.258545, 9.459619, 9.620753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.18, "volume": 303761, "typical_volume": 1525981.0, "trend": 10.145333, "fair_value": 18.439328, "relative_strength": -26.323508, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.315342, "energy": 31.655679, "activity_lines": [ 9.225333, 9.231273, 9.441286, 9.543978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.98, "volume": 454880, "typical_volume": 1418406.95, "trend": 9.955667, "fair_value": 18.407789, "relative_strength": -27.569299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.597177, "energy": 34.670868, "activity_lines": [ 9.130667, 9.178, 9.400429, 9.468796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }