{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f6ee0a3-3f8d-475c-8fcb-973c25ee4940", "symbol": "MAT", "name": "Matsa Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.419, "architecture_energy": 76.025, "architecture_maturity": 58.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.052, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 17.58, "upward_expansion": 15.54, "deceleration": 40.47, "rotation_down": 68.37, "downward_expansion": 88.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.055933, 0.059855, 0.066733, 0.074508 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.048, "trend_reference": 0.0881, "distance_from_trend": -0.455165, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.059003, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.186485, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.049356, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.563636, "excess_performance": -0.627342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.455165, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171473, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.186485, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.741097, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.530494, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.430678, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.563636, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.123547, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13004406, "relative_activity": 2.764788, "balance": 0.123547, "dry_up": 1.36548, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.221154, "annualized_volatility": 0.848757, "from_high_reference": -0.690323, "from_low_reference": 0.170732 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0881, "fair_value_reference": 0.059003, "structural_low": 0.041, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.008333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": 0.010738, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.24, "worst_return": -0.271739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.017841, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031791, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.271739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.185458, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.176273, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.241379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.228571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.571429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.346154, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, 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"down", "direction": -67.903024, "energy": 51.233856, "activity_lines": [ 0.064867, 0.066655, 0.07299, 0.08191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.061, "volume": 2006538, "typical_volume": 5032772.4, "trend": 0.0933, "fair_value": 0.058837, "relative_strength": -37.616804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.274441, "energy": 47.49787, "activity_lines": [ 0.063467, 0.065091, 0.071262, 0.079677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.056, "volume": 8051660, "typical_volume": 4431443.75, "trend": 0.090833, "fair_value": 0.058939, "relative_strength": -43.833884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.200851, "energy": 53.258513, "activity_lines": [ 0.060933, 0.063055, 0.06929, 0.077271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.048, "volume": 13004406, "typical_volume": 4703582.1, "trend": 0.0881, "fair_value": 0.059003, "relative_strength": -53.049356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.419444, "energy": 76.024577, "activity_lines": [ 0.055933, 0.059855, 0.066733, 0.074508 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }