{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f6f1602-3c36-488e-8de6-2c4256184b57", "symbol": "LGEU", "name": "L&G Europe ex UK Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.957, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.833, "architecture_energy": 67.263, "architecture_maturity": 59.654, "architecture_confidence": 61.028, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.12, "rotation_up": 56.26, "upward_expansion": 82.54, "deceleration": 68.2, "rotation_down": 26.81, "downward_expansion": 11.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.363333, 22.257, 21.861367, 21.487232 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.805, "trend_reference": 21.107667, "distance_from_trend": 0.080413, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.892897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.274528, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.514075, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.108653, "excess_performance": -0.062238, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080413, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040923, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.274528, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066936, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035141, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01722, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108653, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.18737, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4119, "relative_activity": 1.206114, "balance": 0.18737, "dry_up": 3.02019, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018164, "annualized_volatility": 0.152304, "from_high_reference": -0.004148, "from_low_reference": 0.249178 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.107667, "fair_value_reference": 17.892897, "structural_low": 18.796, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.009655, "positive_rate": 0.595238, "directional_follow_through": 0.595238, "median_excess_return": -0.006014, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.04539, "worst_return": -0.085334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.019966, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.014685, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.083901, "worst_return": -0.05026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.084227, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.028626, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.120614, "worst_return": -0.173965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 21.975, "volume": 759, "typical_volume": 3155.05, "trend": 20.961167, "fair_value": 17.797712, "relative_strength": -3.727254, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.399165, "energy": 61.0786, "activity_lines": [ 22.108667, 22.037, 21.596205, 21.285275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.32, "volume": 2898, "typical_volume": 3279.35, "trend": 21.0335, "fair_value": 17.84375, "relative_strength": -2.841282, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.407685, "energy": 56.6345, "activity_lines": [ 22.166667, 22.110545, 21.711443, 21.372942 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.805, "volume": 4119, "typical_volume": 3415.1, "trend": 21.107667, "fair_value": 17.892897, "relative_strength": -3.514075, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.833435, "energy": 67.262518, "activity_lines": [ 22.363333, 22.257, 21.861367, 21.487232 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }