{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f7075d3-ca4c-4d8b-bcda-5bbfa5c47ff3", "symbol": "MRCK", "name": "Merck KGaA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.243, "architecture_energy": 57.429, "architecture_maturity": 63.561, "architecture_confidence": 74.838, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.61, "rotation_up": 52.36, "upward_expansion": 83.44, "deceleration": 67.34, "rotation_down": 27.92, "downward_expansion": 10.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 141.916667, 141.093636, 134.580757, 129.113184 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 144.5, "trend_reference": 124.428028, "distance_from_trend": 0.161314, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 133.130327, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.085403, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.909807, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.207244, "excess_performance": 0.032998, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.161314, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068156, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.085403, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.245438, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009098, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146416, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.207244, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 393.75, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 414, "relative_activity": 4.378636, "balance": 393.75, "dry_up": 3.648863, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047804, "annualized_volatility": 0.353608, "from_high_reference": -0.020339, "from_low_reference": 0.465254 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 124.428028, "fair_value_reference": 133.130327, "structural_low": 98.61773, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.029408, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006662, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.14175, "worst_return": -0.161043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.054842, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.02585, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.097877, "worst_return": -0.091615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.052704, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02581, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.219929, "worst_return": -0.239236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 140.149994, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 45.6, "trend": 121.680499, "fair_value": 133.39414, "relative_strength": -2.056945, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.010043, "energy": 80.509542, "activity_lines": [ 141.156665, 137.251817, 127.659165, 124.402752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 135.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 45.6, "trend": 122.284219, "fair_value": 133.341781, "relative_strength": -3.202032, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.245273, "energy": 65.383773, "activity_lines": [ 139.876667, 137.828182, 129.034485, 125.300785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 139.899994, "volume": 966, "typical_volume": 74.0, "trend": 123.00513, "fair_value": 133.262864, "relative_strength": -1.32626, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.519514, "energy": 58.011566, "activity_lines": [ 139.896665, 138.772726, 130.773927, 126.437286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 143.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 74.0, "trend": 123.818463, "fair_value": 133.198305, "relative_strength": 1.510872, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.379825, "energy": 57.268786, "activity_lines": [ 140.75, 140.005454, 132.73303, 127.778891 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 144.5, "volume": 414, "typical_volume": 94.55, "trend": 124.428028, "fair_value": 133.130327, "relative_strength": -0.909807, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.243469, "energy": 57.429206, "activity_lines": [ 141.916667, 141.093636, 134.580757, 129.113184 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }