{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f70c314-4464-46bf-94d0-787c847c1441", "symbol": "W2V", "name": "Way 2 Vat Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.68, "architecture_energy": 91.386, "architecture_maturity": 48.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.353, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 11.17, "upward_expansion": 21.55, "deceleration": 37.19, "rotation_down": 80.69, "downward_expansion": 97.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.052733, 0.057855, 0.063424, 0.06997 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.048, "trend_reference": 0.082017, "distance_from_trend": -0.414753, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.09942, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.517199, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.284544, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.542857, "excess_performance": -0.606563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.414753, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125622, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.517199, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232489, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.462845, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.31646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.542857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.012487, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 982378, "relative_activity": 1.384017, "balance": 0.012487, "dry_up": 0.790698, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147436, "annualized_volatility": 0.563051, "from_high_reference": -0.68, "from_low_reference": 0.066667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.082017, "fair_value_reference": 0.09942, "structural_low": 0.045, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.030303, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.002504, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.125, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.112669, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.727273, "worst_return": -0.36, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.116883, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.012187, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.909105, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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0.068536, 0.07275, 0.08056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.061, "volume": 703373, "typical_volume": 883404.8, "trend": 0.08935, "fair_value": 0.102215, "relative_strength": -29.810638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.805678, "energy": 54.186108, "activity_lines": [ 0.0657, 0.066855, 0.071033, 0.078647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.058, "volume": 423349, "typical_volume": 794776.9, "trend": 0.087983, "fair_value": 0.101689, "relative_strength": -33.009263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.561658, "energy": 66.249656, "activity_lines": [ 0.063, 0.064973, 0.069212, 0.076625 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.058, "volume": 199143, "typical_volume": 729927.6, "trend": 0.086417, "fair_value": 0.101163, "relative_strength": -32.477422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.79977, "energy": 68.348622, "activity_lines": [ 0.060667, 0.0634, 0.067638, 0.07469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.05, "volume": 640086, "typical_volume": 703408.35, "trend": 0.08475, "fair_value": 0.100138, "relative_strength": -42.704439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.022668, "energy": 86.491049, "activity_lines": [ 0.056533, 0.060627, 0.065526, 0.072341 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.048, "volume": 982378, "typical_volume": 709802.2, "trend": 0.082017, "fair_value": 0.09942, "relative_strength": -46.284544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.679794, "energy": 91.385649, "activity_lines": [ 0.052733, 0.057855, 0.063424, 0.06997 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }